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To: Gabriel008 who wrote (98828)2/13/1999 3:56:00 PM
From: stockman_scott  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 176387
 
Gabriel: Thanks for contributing the best critique of the Niles report that I have seen.

You said...<<All in all, I'm expecting revenue of $5.7 billion and EPS of $0.34.>> That sounds great to me. Imagine if these numbers were announced (an EPS 3 cents above First Call Estimates and STRONG sales) along with a 2 for 1 split....Hmmm...We would have short covering so quickly it wouldn't even be funny.

I have faith in Michael Dell and his team. IMHO, their virtual integration business model and their management team are unique in the high tech industry. I will continue to support them with the majority of my investment dollars.

Have a good Weekend.

-Scott



To: Gabriel008 who wrote (98828)2/13/1999 3:59:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit  Read Replies (4) | Respond to of 176387
 
Gabriel, I agree with all of your points right down the line, although I am not quite so bullish as you (I am estimating revenues at around $5.6B with earnings of around $.33).

The one point I would make is that IDC's data are through Dec 31, whereas Nile is talking about the period ending Jan 31.

The BBRS report is very fuzzy on ASP's. Based on their revised 2.2 million units and $5.2 billion in revenue the ASP works out to $2364. Where did the $2350 ASP number for Q4 come from? I think he is talking about ASP at the end of the quarter, not ASP for the entire quarter.

The section on gross margins really had me baffled.

There are any number of issues that are inconsistent, not the least of which is a report previously quoted on this thread that pointed out that just a few day ago Nile said Dell had a fantastic finish to the quarter.

Thanks for your input.

TTFN,
CTC



To: Gabriel008 who wrote (98828)2/13/1999 4:45:00 PM
From: Mohan Marette  Respond to of 176387
 
Gabriel: Thanks as usual for taking the time to do the analysis,very greatful indeed.I hope your analysis proves to be better than that of the other guy from Robertson Stevens.




To: Gabriel008 who wrote (98828)2/13/1999 4:58:00 PM
From: cks  Respond to of 176387
 
Thread members should not miss post (98831) Gabriel this single post is worth the price I paid to belong to SI. Chuzzlewith and your discussion is the reason we read through all the trash that gets posted during these times, and thanks for the time and effort you put in to that research. Hoping your voice of reason continues.

Regards, cks



To: Gabriel008 who wrote (98828)2/13/1999 9:26:00 PM
From: Detail-MD  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
 
Thank You for this Post (#831). Great FACTUAL INFORMATION...

We all benefit from your investigation and hard work!!!

-Steve



To: Gabriel008 who wrote (98828)2/14/1999 3:24:00 AM
From: Andy  Respond to of 176387
 
fROM YOUR MOUTH..........
Thanks for all the hard work.
Andy Richter



To: Gabriel008 who wrote (98828)2/14/1999 9:42:00 AM
From: Bandit19  Respond to of 176387
 
Gabriel,
Hi, please add my name to the long, and growing list of thank yous. Your informed and sound analysis is truly a breath of fresh air.
$$In Michael We Trust$$
Steve



To: Gabriel008 who wrote (98828)2/15/1999 1:42:00 AM
From: Suresh  Respond to of 176387
 
Gabriel,

probably IDC is talking about calendar Q4 and BBRS is talking about DELL's Q4.

-Suresh