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To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (37532)	2/13/1999 8:44:00 PM
From: A. Geiche	Respond to of 95453

George, your "dead money zone" sounds sooo soothing, almost like the end of life, but so many people "don't see an end in sight." washtimes.com

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (37532)	2/13/1999 11:21:00 PM
From: SargeK	Respond to of 95453

Market Tops and Bottoms Except for Earnings announcements or an unexpected News worthy event, many of the OS sector stocks have already gone through periods of "Dead Money" as indicated by several weeks of low volume. Due to the duration of the present Bear Market in OS, I have assumed (possibly erroneously) that value investors who bought in at much higher levels would have taken the tax break B4 12/31 and then waited the necessary 30 days to buy the same company back or elected to buy a similar issue for immediate replacement, i.e. Sell NE, Buy RIG. Most of the issues I follow have tested previous lows and modestly penetrated on low volume and then reversed, or bounced off the previous lows having established fairly well defined corridors depicted as price channels. I think the likelihood of a panic sell off is extremely remote in this instance and the sector demonstrates a lack of motivated buyers (until crude recovers) as opposed to desperate sellers. Only time will tell for sure. There are no certainties. Bullish sentiment can always become more bullish and bearish sentiment more bearish and either may continue to grow until exhausted. The point of exhaustion marks the top or the bottom; however, exact timing of the event can only be determined in hindsight. Extremes in sentiment can be observed in Bollinger Bands, but even with the knowledge, one doesn't know the extreme limit until after the reversal. Waiting for a trend reversal also has its costs. Wait too long and you miss a significant % of the ultimate move. Move too early, and you may be victim to further significant decline. I find the easiest method of picking a bottom is to buy near previously established lows (support level) committing a limited % of capital to the desired position, initially and then averaging purchases along the support level (plus or minus, 5 or 10%). I discard, sharp intra-day penetrations of both support and resistance lines, as aberations of extreme bearishness or bullishness or Market Maker machinations on Small Cap issues during periods of little or no volume. All that is just a wordy way of saying, Buy Low (@ established support levels) and Sell Higher when volume drops off (indicating buyer demand has exhausted itself). Sudden changes in the underlying commodity or other news driven events can and does effect both the timing and the price of my trading positions. I do not let either effect core holdings (long term investment). There is nothing new above that most of you don't already know. Just some insight into my thinking on the issue. K