Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Suresh who wrote (98999)	2/13/1999 10:51:00 PM
From: Sig	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

<<<assuming industry grows at 17% and DELL at 50% (I am assuming DELL has 10% market share now). DELL will have approx 33% after 5 years DELL will have approx 73% after 8 years >>>> IMO One more year of present Dell performance will do just fine. Calculating anything beyond 1 year has the following problems: 1. What is the growth rate of the Internet business arena in which Dell participates? Far greater than the 17% estimated for computer segment alone ( perhaps 10X that rate) 2. What products will Dell be producing/selling in two years White boxes--->computers---> servers---->mass storage----> web sales of peripherals----> wireless computing items???? 3. Will Dell remain one company, spin a division off, or perhaps buy another (not likely).? 4. IMO Dell will continue to provide computing equipment world wide and has been hard-pressed to keep up with demand. But that does not prevent branching out into other areas when the time is right. Summary: The size of the future market area for Dell is unknown. The present growth can be maintained in the near future because many new plants are 'in the works', with demand being such that Dell has even considered a new plant location in the US despite the construction now in progress on 570 acres in Austin, in China, in Ireland, in Brazil. Yet it will be done one step at a time, and the next step is to beat the $0.31 estimate defined by some ^^%%$ analysts. That's important for one day to us shareholders, but irrelevant to the future of Dell. I have confidence in, the gentlemen from Austin and their organization who will have produced products with a value of about $5.4 bil in the last 3 months quarter. May the Force be with them. Sig

To: Suresh who wrote (98999)	2/14/1999 11:44:00 AM
From: Knighty Tin	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 176387

Suresh, Great logic, except for the fact that the pc market will post negative growth this year as it did last year. And Dell will continue to lose market share as it did fourth quarter. Otherwise, right on. <G> MB

To: Suresh who wrote (98999)	2/14/1999 1:34:00 PM
From: BGR	Respond to of 176387

Suresh, IOW, in 5-6 years DELL will be approximately in the same position as CSCO is now in it's respective market. Now, CSCO's last 5-6 year stock performance says it all - I am going to increase my asset allocation in DELL in future. Thanks much for a great post! -BGR.

To: Suresh who wrote (98999)	2/14/1999 3:29:00 PM
From: kemble s. matter	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Suresha, Hi!!! RE: assuming industry grows at 17% and DELL at 50% (I am assuming DELL has 10% market share now). DELL will have approx 33% after 5 years DELL will have approx 73% after 8 years DELL will exceed 100% after 10 years. As long as the Dell culture continues....the service and quality....IMO Dell is unstoppable...what Michael started in a dorm room was no fluke...his idea of service and quality first has created this Virtual Integration...without the two everything would falter...This allows The Model to steal market share at a rate no one can predict...but, those that think you're crazy predicting the above...hey, how many of us optimists thought Dell would be where it is already?? :o) Best, kemble