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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Greg22 who wrote (18755)	2/14/1999 1:35:00 AM
From: VLAD	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Gregg, I believe that how much Vivus will make in 1999 depends on one big unknown and that is when a domestic partner starts to market MUSE. The earlier Vivus signs a partner the higher the profits will be. I believe that if everything goes smoothly in Europe, and Vivus is able to get a partner marketing MUSE by May 1, 1999, then they can make at least .60 in 1999. Vivus is best off to first sign on a marketing partner that will be a probable future buyer of the company. In the hands of Vivus, the income potential (and thus the company) of MUSE is worth a lot less than if MUSE is owned by a large pharmaceutical company. Vivus is by far best off signing up a domestic partner before considering selling the company. This way they can increase sales, buy back many more shares at present prices, and eventually sell the company (perhaps by the end of nest year) for more than $11.00/share. CNBC was doing a report on Thursday concerning a new diet drug that is waiting for FDA approval. I believe it is developed by Roche and they said that Roche has been working on this drug for 16 years and has so far invested $600M into the development of this drug. The FDA may find out that there is a problem with the drug and not allow approval. In essence they would be flushing $600M down the toilet if the drug doesn't get to market. It wouldn't be the first time a lot of money is spent on a drug that never gets to market. Now look at Vivus: 1)$30M invested in a new production facility. 2)$24M in cash and cash available securities. 3)$10M due in milestone payments this year. 4)Over $21M of raw materials on hand. 5)Intraurethral delivery patents. 6)One proven SAFE and effective drug(MUSE) approved and another new and improved second generation drug(Alibra) in the wings. 7)Gene therapy another future product with promising potential. 8)A biotech company involved in a hot and growing global ED market. 9)A product whose primary competition is showing a deteriorating safety profile. Is all this really worth only a measly $77.6M??? I think Vivus' value can only be appreciated as time passes and MUSE's segment of the global ED pie is determined. MUSE will never sell on hype and the news media. It will only sell if doctors take the required time to explain the MUSE alternative to their patients.