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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MileHigh who wrote (15597)	2/14/1999 4:06:00 PM
From: Bernard Super	Respond to of 93625

"This is a simplified view ..." -------------------- Mile, I think if that was my first intro to RMBS, and then saw it had dipped 33% from its peak, I'd be falling all over myself to buy! Great summary! Regards - Bernard

To: MileHigh who wrote (15597)	2/14/1999 4:40:00 PM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

MileHigh, I don't think you're opinionated or combative -- I think you're realistic, and are expressing real concerns. These are much more valuable to me than the hype messages (though they don't necessarily fill me with the same warm glow). It helps me clarify my thinking as well. As long as we keep these conversations at an impersonal level, I think we should all listen and evaluate opposing viewpoints. I am absolutely in 100% agreement on the last point of your message. I agree that not much'll happen to the stock until some real shipments occur (or announcements of immediately impending shipments). I like your 7 point summary and would suggest that the way you presented it is VERY positive for Rambus. We're at step 6 of a 7 step plan. We're very, very close. How difficult would it be for another technology to catch up (especially #2)? Very, very difficult. I suspect our differences are in the timing of the stock movements. I moved out of some of my Rambus as it was falling and thought that I'd wait until the March/April timeframe to get back in since it would be dead money anyway. I found that I couldn't do it, though. I've bought back my original position plus more at the 71-75 range. Couldn't stand not having it around. If you can buy in in April (or later) at this price (or even lower between now and then) then more power to you. You'll make some additional money in the meantime in whatever you put it in. I found I couldn't do it, though. So here's another opionion up for comment. I don't believe we're going to see a huge demand for Rambus systems as a name brand. What I mean by that is that people are not going to want to buy a system just because it has Rambus memory in it. People who will buy the early systems are the people who buy the high-end systems anyway because they need the performance and are willing to pay more, and in this case it means a fast PIII, faster memory, fast graphics card, etc. It's a whole package, not just a single component that's going to sell the first products. Just look at the way SDRAM penetrated the market. High-end first, then down the curve into cheaper and cheaper systems. But I bought my current system, which was one of the first SDRAM systems in mid-1996, and by mid-1998, you couldn't buy a non-SDRAM system from any of the established vendors. So while I think we should be prepared that Rambus' revenues are not suddenly going to skyrocket the first quarter after shipments start, I also believe that the penetration of Rambus technology will occur much more rapidly than most predictions. Especially since the folks at Rambus have already said that they're biggest focus for 128M designs is to get within 10% of the cost of SDRAM. All opposing viewpoints welcome! <gg> Dave B