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To: JEB who wrote (55650)2/14/1999 10:23:00 PM
From: GERBER  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 119973
 
LUMM could be the leader in their field by this time next year.
It would take the big boy years of research to catch up, which
is why I think they are a good takeover candidate.

Lumenon has perfected a very innovative photonic process that allows
them to manufacture optical chips(Hybrid glass-on silicon). The current
generation of rack mounted multiplexors use a combination of fiber,
modulator/demodulator, router, filter, and tranceiver. Lumenon's process
will allow them to put all those components on a single chip. It's like
going from the old room sized Univac computers to a single CPU, well
maybe not that dramatic but you get the picture.

I think all the big manufacturers will be watching LUMM very closely
now. Just think, you will be able to increase the capacity of a single
fiber by up to 128 times using a single chip. For example you will be
able to carry 128 phone conversations at the same time instead of just
one without, any interuption. With a lot of broadcast/cable/telephone
companies going to fiber, there will be a huge demand for Lumenon's
products.

North American DWDM Market To Reach $3.2 Billion by 2002

According to a newly released forecast, the North-American dense-wavelength-division
multiplexing transmission-equipment market will grow from its 1998 figure of $1.9 billion
to $3.2 billion by 2002, an increase of 70%. The Ryan Hankin Kent (RHK) report,
WDM and Optical Networks: Technology and Markets, shows the top three systems
suppliers holding 78% of the market by dollar value.

The market leader in total dollars shipped was Nortel, followed by Lucent and Ciena
(see table below). Ciena also led in shipments of systems with greater than 16 channels.
RHK expects high-channel-count systems (greater than 16) with 10 Gbit/s channel
capacity to grow fastest in the forecast period as service providers migrate to
further increase capacity.

Market Market Leaders

Total volume 1) Nortel 2) Lucent 3) Ciena
Integrated SONET/WDM 1) Nortel 2) Lucent 3) Alcatel
Open DWDM 1) Ciena 2) Lucent 3) NEC