To: JEB who wrote (55650 ) 2/14/1999 10:23:00 PM From: GERBER Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 119973
LUMM could be the leader in their field by this time next year. It would take the big boy years of research to catch up, which is why I think they are a good takeover candidate. Lumenon has perfected a very innovative photonic process that allows them to manufacture optical chips(Hybrid glass-on silicon). The current generation of rack mounted multiplexors use a combination of fiber, modulator/demodulator, router, filter, and tranceiver. Lumenon's process will allow them to put all those components on a single chip. It's like going from the old room sized Univac computers to a single CPU, well maybe not that dramatic but you get the picture. I think all the big manufacturers will be watching LUMM very closely now. Just think, you will be able to increase the capacity of a single fiber by up to 128 times using a single chip. For example you will be able to carry 128 phone conversations at the same time instead of just one without, any interuption. With a lot of broadcast/cable/telephone companies going to fiber, there will be a huge demand for Lumenon's products. North American DWDM Market To Reach $3.2 Billion by 2002 According to a newly released forecast, the North-American dense-wavelength-division multiplexing transmission-equipment market will grow from its 1998 figure of $1.9 billion to $3.2 billion by 2002, an increase of 70%. The Ryan Hankin Kent (RHK) report, WDM and Optical Networks: Technology and Markets, shows the top three systems suppliers holding 78% of the market by dollar value. The market leader in total dollars shipped was Nortel, followed by Lucent and Ciena (see table below). Ciena also led in shipments of systems with greater than 16 channels. RHK expects high-channel-count systems (greater than 16) with 10 Gbit/s channel capacity to grow fastest in the forecast period as service providers migrate to further increase capacity. Market Market Leaders Total volume 1) Nortel 2) Lucent 3) Ciena Integrated SONET/WDM 1) Nortel 2) Lucent 3) Alcatel Open DWDM 1) Ciena 2) Lucent 3) NEC