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Politics : Dutch Central Bank Sale Announcement Imminent? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: baystock who wrote (3429)	2/15/1999 6:36:00 AM
From: sea_urchin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 81101

Ram : Indeed so. The "bottom" is based on a statistical probability of the mean of the distribution minus 1.6 times the standard deviation. This corresponds to a probability of 90%. The particular model has been selected (from a variety) because it has been accurate at all previous major tops and bottoms since 1987. The analysis is completely arithmetical and is based on the least square relationship between POG and up to nine currencies eg yen, Euro, Swiss franc, Sterling, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and a few minors. Consequently all conspiracies, manipulations and other nefarious acts are included in the relationship! By the way, and this is also what has confused me, the models based on 21 years of data (ie including the 1980 bubble) show that the "bottom" has already been achieved. I consequently chose to use less data in order to eliminate the extraordinary situation of 1980.