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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (47100)	2/15/1999 8:04:00 AM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 132070

BGR: You may well be right, but turning it around, how is it that Niles just "discovered" that they might come in a bit shy of expectations a few days before earnings release? I know how hard it has been at this end to try to develop some indicators for this company without any contact with the brass (see earlier posts),....it isn't easy. There is no channel from which to glean pieces of the puzzle. At best, and with a bunch of hard work, one is fortunate to get a general feeling. It will be interesting to see if a bunch of insider stock got sold between say mid quarter and Nile's revelations. If you go back to Dell's earlier flop, they didn't warn then. Of course there wasn't as strong a perceived need to do so back then neither (the Milberg-Weiss effect), to be fair. Niles isn't the first to put out the word on this quarter. Two others are in print. Neither are dollar specific on revs. On the other hand, Niles may be taking a flyer, or he may have done some brilliant research. My own work has suggested for many weeks (and we have said as much,) that Dell will provide "mild disappointment". It is extremely common practice in the industry for favoured analysts to be provided with a nudge to "bring the estimate down a bit" when it is too high. It is a disgusting aspect of the game, and I've had no interest in participating. One becomes a yo-yo, controlled by the company, and it tends to encourage the use of optimistic estimates, which plays to the company's game. (high estimates early in the year/quarter, that can be brought down by the company if and when required, by a simple phone call). It also encourages analysts to be a bit lazy and dependent on the company. Best, Earlie