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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike from La. who wrote (37568)	2/15/1999 11:37:00 AM
From: SargeK	Respond to of 95453

Crude Crisis is Spelled: OPPORTUNITY World Oil Markets/Prices During the rest of this year and next year, a slight rise in oil prices from their historically low levels. By the end of 2000, the world oil price for crude oil (defined as the average price U.S. refiners pay for imported oil) is estimated to be $14.25, a little less than $4 per barrel above the average January 1999 price. Note: To convert our world oil price forecast to the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, add a little more than $2 per barrel; to convert to the price of Brent crude oil, add about $0.50 to our world oil price forecast. World Oil Supply: From 1997 through 2000, the largest growth in oil supply is expected to come from Iraq, with oil production increasing by 2 million barrels per day in these 4 years, with almost all of this increase having already occurred in 1997 and 1998. World Oil Demand: In the period 1997-2000, Asian (excluding China) oil demand growth is expected to be only one-sixth as much as it was in the 1993-1996 period. This is a direct result of the Asian economic crisis. The largest growth in oil demand in the period 1997-2000 is expected to be North America (again, primarily the United States). China is expected to add about 1 million barrels per day to world oil demand over this period, while Latin America and Western Europe each add another 750,000 barrels per day. . China's Recent economic growth has exceeded population growth, improving the overall standard of living. Although the Asian crisis has affected the market for China's exports, China's centralized economy has averted a similar crisis. China's economic growth in 1998 exceeded 7 % and Kiplinger has forecasted double digit growth for the country over the next several years. The U.S. Energy Information Administration currently forecasts China's energy consumption will reach 46 quadrillion Btu in 2000 (an increase of 24% from 37 quadrillion Btu in 1996). Faced with growing reliance on imported oil, China has begun to acquire interests in oil fields around the world to secure future supplies. In the past year, CNPC has acquired more than $8 billion worth of oil concessions in Sudan, Venezuela, Iraq and Kazakhstan, and pledged $12.5 billion for four oil and gas pipelines from Central Asia and Russia. China's goal is to obtain 240,000 bbl/d from overseas concessions by 2000 and 1 million bbl/d by 2010 (mainly from Central Asia/Russia and the Middle East). U.S. Petroleum Demand: Much of the 3-percent growth in 1999 is brought about by higher growth in motor gasoline demand, an assumed return to normal weather patterns, and a projected recovery in jet fuel markets. OECD Stock Levels. The forecast shows that OECD oil inventories are expected to be drawn down in 1999 and 2000, and EIA expects oil prices to slowly increase throughout 1999 and 2000 (although the 1999 average price is less than the 1998 average price because of how low prices were at the beginning of 1999 For detailed information see: eia.doe.gov K NOTE: By adding $2.00 to the forecasted World Oil Price of $14.25 that makes the forecasts for WTI $16.25, which is above the $15. benchmark that usually stimulates activity in the sector. These are, of course, average prices and we will see spikes above and below the general trend.