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To: FJB who wrote (1980)2/15/1999 8:39:00 AM
From: Ian@SI  Respond to of 2946
 
Bob,

I doubt whether anyone who has seen the contributions that you've made at SI would "flame" you.

Yes, the loss of Motorola, if in fact it's a loss, is a big time disappointment. It would be nice to understand the reason for the loss before making a final decision.

Somehow, now as the up leg is about to begin, with all the "seeding" work done by SVGI doesn't seem to be the right time to sell SVGI below its book value.

Time will tell. ... and I suspect it will be much less than a year before we know with certainty which way this one's going.

Ian.



To: FJB who wrote (1980)2/15/1999 10:44:00 AM
From: Ian@SI  Respond to of 2946
 
Bob,

In looking at the $ amounts of the ASML order:

The Dutch maker of semiconductor equipment said on Friday that the orders from Samsung Corp. of South Korea and Motorola Inc. of the U.S. total between 300 million guilders and 350 million guilders ($152.9 million and $178.4 million).

Samsung's order, valued at between 200 million guilders and 250 million guilders, is among the largest ever received by ASML. The Motorola order is valued at more than 100 million guilders, ASML said.



100M Guilders is about $50MUSD.

or about enough to buy 7, possibly 8 scanners.

or about 1/4 to 1/3 of the scanners required for a new fab.

Might SVGI be unable to deliver the whole order when MOT needs it?

or Is MOT playing hardball looking for better terms for SVGI scanners to be used on the critical layers?

At this point, it's unknown what has led to MOT's decision to order ASMLF's scanners:

- A mix and match strategy
- Pricing
- Delivery options
- something else.

Until I see a better reason to sell SVGI below book, I'll hold.

FWIW,
Ian.



To: FJB who wrote (1980)2/15/1999 11:27:00 AM
From: marquis103  Respond to of 2946
 
Hi Bob. Believe me, no flaming from me. I can understand your frustration. what surprises me is that SVGI seemed to get some positive press over the past few weeks. It was less than two weeks ago that the stock popped on some good words. Maybe Ian has the right slant in the previous post. At any rate, good investing on whatever you decide to do.

Russ



To: FJB who wrote (1980)2/15/1999 7:30:00 PM
From: Cary Salsberg  Respond to of 2946
 
Bob,

The advanced lithography tool market has consumed 1000-1500 tools annually when condidtions were favorable. The market has moved from I-line steppers to DUV steppers and scanners. This is SVGI's turf, but they can only supply 212 with many expected to go to Intel and IBM. It should not surprise us when Nikon, Canon, and ASML receive the bulk of new orders. It is only prudent for semi manufacturers to lock up deals with the high capacity producers. The questions that should concern us is how SVGI tools stack up and will there be a shortage of lithography tools during the next upturn. I am interested in your thoughts on these questions and what degree they contributed to your sell decision.

Thank you.



To: FJB who wrote (1980)2/15/1999 8:15:00 PM
From: Ritz  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2946
 
Robert:

I've been losing my patience as well. I, however, am not willing to count SVGI out yet. They were the first to champion 157nm lithography, which now looks like its going to happen, and appear (at least at this point) to have a considerable lead.

"157nm Lithography Makes Amazing Comeback"
semibiznews.com

-Ritz



To: FJB who wrote (1980)2/23/1999 11:07:00 PM
From: Ian@SI  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 2946
 
Bob,

Did you sell your SVGI?

And did you know that the ASML order was fro I-Line not DUV Scanners?

Here's ML's comments.

Silicon Valley Group (SVGI, C-2-2-9, 15 3/8)
SVGI's stock was under pressure last week following a
press release by ASM Lithography (ASML, C-2-1-9, 44
5/8) announcing that a new customer, Motorola, had
ordered its scanners. Motorola has historically purchased
DUV-scanners from SVGI. However, the press release
failed to mention that Motorola's order was for i-line
scanners and not DUV scanners.
The news is not nearly as
serious a competitive issue for SVGI as many investors
first interpreted it. We think the sell-of in the stock was a
knee-jerk response that will correct itself.