To: Questerr who wrote (461 ) 2/15/1999 4:23:00 PM From: david james Respond to of 700
It is interesting the way Vic Grover and Kaufman Brothers are putting their name on the line in support of Able. Last time I talked to Grover's office a couple weeks ago, they said that they were talking to Able management almost daily. Putting out a buy rec on Friday would certainly be a pretty dumb move if there was a decent chance they would be proven idiots within the following week. My guess is that they have some idea who is behind Interfiducia. I also suspect that Fidelity, Kennedy, Vanguard, DLJ and the other institutions buying have some idea of what was going on behind the scenes. Even the movement on Friday was interesting. The delays in their 10k filings and the lack of news certainly caused a drop at the open, but from that point, the buying met the selling, and it almost closed near the high for the day. There is no question that this investment entails risk, but there are some big players that have come to play in our little microcap playground. Those of us that are small players can get in and out of this stock on a single minor trade. But these institutions must go along for the ride. Which makes it all the more interesting that they are willing to take a major position in Able. If Able can get financing and deal with their debs the stock has a long, long way to run. Even Asensio does not question the potential revenue stream - with contracts in place that could easily provide over $400 mill in revenues. The question is whether Able management can get the financing to manage the cash flow required for this sort of revenue stream. And getting rid of the debs should be a first step towards that. This is not a company whose stock is depending on the dreams of what might come out of some new medicine or invention. It is a major corporation with major contracts currently having cash flow problems. Such problems are not unique to Able. However, it is unusual to be under the magnifying glass of a group willing to put out a press release regarding every defect they can find or invent. Asensio does appear worried though and has shown that he is not willing to wait patiently for Able's downfall. He has actively campaigned to get Able's contracts cancelled. It appears that he has contacted numerous government officials, complained to Able's auditors and even attempted to sway analysts at Kaufman's office through calls to their offices. So far, to no avail. Meanwhile, it appears that the institutions have been adding to the positions that they took during the 3rd quarter. I personally think that without more information than is currently available, one should not be taking a significant stake either long or short. There are too many unknowns and I did take a few profits when it cleared 11. But I like what I see so far, and I will be happily buying those shares back and a good deal more once Able's position becomes clarified. news.com Able Telcom Reiterated Short-Term 'Buy' at Kaufman Brothers Bloomberg News February 12, 1999, 8:55 a.m. PT Princeton, New Jersey, Feb. 12 (Bloomberg Data) -- Able Telcom Holding Corp. (ABTE US) was reiterated short-term ''buy'' by analyst Vik Grover at Kaufman Brothers. The long-term rating was also reiterated ''buy.'' The near-term price target is $19 and the 12-month price target is $26.