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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chuzzlewit who wrote (99371)	2/15/1999 10:48:00 AM
From: Sig	Respond to of 176387

Chuzz: Re My reply to your post of a Dell bears analysis In August 1997 Dell was at $20/sh(adj for splits) This (chopped up) reply to a post by Jbn3 shows how an intelligent experienced investor can miss a good stock by what? Over-analysis ? Or 'Zeroing in' on points while neglecting management capabilities. Like the poster, (who was right in the short term) we are seldom completely right or wrong in forecasts, as Dell did rather 'sit around' for a period of 6 months which turned out to be a great buying time. But after that it was "To the Moon, Alice" -------------------------------------------------------------------- To: jbn3 (11905 ) (jbn says) <<<<<<< Toured the DELL factory area yesterday. You said they are building BIG TIME, but I couldn't believe it when I saw it!! Three huge new buildings, looks like at least one will be finished this fall, the others soon after.>>>> These new buildings might hurt Dell in the future, if competition from other companies and used computers causes revenues to decline. These buildings, which are a fixed cost, will drag down profits. (jbn says) <<<< This will be my last post till the Awesome Hunks leave and the noise level dies down. Did you see the BS thread Candle Stick started? That one will have a short life, I betcha. >>>> I don't know if the noise level will ever die down, Number 3, but I think your Aug 90 calls on Dell were a bad deal. The stock market has a tendency to decline toward options expiration, and next week is the last week for the calls. Their time premium will decay rapidly, and there really is no upside to Dell. It already has tripled since the beginning of the year. How much higher do you think it can go in a week? Just think, even with Dell's spectacular rise, you would have to hold the stock for years just to earn the return that I got in ONE WEEK! I don't think Dell has too much upside from here. There will probably be p/e contraction in the coming year. The bigger Dell gets, the harder it will be to maintain growth rate. And it really doesn't look like Dell is positioning itself for the low end of the market, where I think most of the new growth and foreign growth will be. Compaq, on the other hand, seems to be preparing for the future better. You're right about the decibel level here. There are far too many posts to keep up with, and it seems that many of them are just chitchat and arguments, greatly diluting what good information there is here. It was nice when it was just a small group. Then we could afford chitchat and discussions. You would think that with these beautiful summer days, people would get out more instead of arguing endlessly about the upcoming earnings report, especially since Dell will probably be on the way down from here, with a short bob up right before earnings. I don't know why people don't understand that Dell has already appreciated greatly, and that it isn't go to move up further until September, if even then. It's p/e is just unrealistically high. As I said before, Dell's stock price is probably going to dive even before earnings are reported. Investors will be just too scared to wait for the report, since it has such a high p/e. Don't forget what happened to Cascade right after they reported their earnings. Also, the market tends to dive toward Labor Day weekend which comes early this year. That will be another buying opportunity. I'm making money every month now, taking advantage of that beginning-of-the-month appreciaton. Happy Motoring! (end of post) The post was by William, the classiest bear to ever visit the Dell thread. ------------------------------------------------------------------- Here are my own comments on that post: 1. The construction of those new buildings in 1997 was interpreted as an error on the part of Dell( if Dell had no upside). 2. Dell is now in the midst of an even greater facility expansion program, and how is one to read this? A mistake? Stupidity by the Dell team which is renowned for not wasting a buck? I think not. Getting ready for a new moon trip is more likely. Sig (who is buying)