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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (28286)	2/15/1999 11:14:00 AM
From: Zardoz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116874

"There really seems to be a great aversion prevalent on this thread to breaking down the real meaning of money and gold and how they interact during various economic times." No joke there. It use to be that silver traded as a currency at one time. And if we extend the philosophy that both gold and silver still are a currency, then we have a problem that many here refuse to acknowledge {not all}. And that fine fact is that as currencies they trade on two demand & supply basics. First as a currency, and second as a commodity. And as such you can factor out the currency portions and the commodity portions from the price of the element. Since the two, silver and gold, never move in a locked pattern up and down, then each must have with it either a currency or commodity premium. Through careful analysis of the world currencies, and the price of the commodities including other commodities index's, you can develope a system of linear and non linear equations that reduce the prices into those demand and supply equations. With that data you can determine a trend, and a point as too where the price of each commodity or currency will go. And the prove of such analysis was shown in the past. Refinments of the equations comes from adding in secondary data such as interest rates, monetary data, and growth data. And when all is compiled and run, a prediction of the future is determined. And the data shows that no US government manipulation occurred. But the data does show that gold has, and will loose it monetary backing over time, as new and better derivatives are introduced.{example the XAU index replaces Gold as a hedge, US dollar index futures replace a basket of currencies} And if a point comes when these derivatives are to fail, you would see the USA government jump into the market and stop the increase in POG. This is what scares many on this thread into the miss believe that GOLD is a safe haven. It isn't by any means. At best it a preservation of wealth over a short time interval. And how many here can time that interval? Many here own gold stocks, and think that a rise in the POG will cause a rise in the gold stocks. But in Oct 19-20, 1987 when the XAU dropped from high of 140.68 to a low of 89.42 {-36.4%} in a face of a imploding markets. Many refuse to consider that in a neutral gold price, that the XAU will deteriate with the rise in interest rates. Many are blinded by the cheerleading that is done... and rely upon the idealism that gold must change direction soon. Truth is that monatary policies mitigate the price of gold to that of an unleveraged commodity in the USA. And reguardless of how much gold is backing a currency, that backing does not aid in the support of the currency, and only acts as a hedge that can be sold to changed fiscal policy, and jolt the markets into lesser trends. A free floating currency aids economies, as a pegged currency shows. Ron, their are many out their that think of gold as only a trading investment to make money off of. I've stated many times in the past, that I care little as to where gold goes, just as long as it moves. I want the volatility to climb. You've just been reading the wrong thread. #Subject-21259 we all have different ways of analysising the markets, but one thing I know, the downside risk is larger then the upside risk. The XAU is still reflecting this. Sure the POG went up on friday, but isn't today a holiday? Look at those 99,000 open interest in GC'J:99, and 25,000 for GC'M:99 on friday

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (28286)	2/15/1999 12:52:00 PM
From: Jim Ilchyshn	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116874

Ron, Many of us do sit back and re-evaluate our objectivity. The difference being that we don't go and spout it off after every article. We can read too. I admit that the performance of gold has mystified, disappointed and caused me to look at other factors. I don't believe that anyone here only has a gold portfolio but given the valuations of the current stock market bubble, I would rather have all gold than all stocks right now. If you really believe in buying low and selling high - you first have to buy low. - Jim.