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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BGR who wrote (47142)	2/15/1999 11:01:00 AM
From: Mike da bear	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Three, MSFT has >90% of the wintel PC market share, so it may grow only at a rate slightly exceeding that of the wintel PC market (17% by some estimates). DELL has about 12% of the same market, so it has a lot more room to grow and can grow at as much as 3 times the rate w/o becoming the dominant player (about 50% of the market share, say) for the next 6 years. I therefore agree that it is ludicrous to compare MSFT and DELL's future growth prospects. DELL clearly has a brighter future. With this line of logic, wouldn't all the smaller PC mfgr's have an even brighter future than DELL since they have an even larger potential growth prospect before they get to 50% of market share? mdb

To: BGR who wrote (47142)	2/15/1999 11:18:00 AM
From: gbh	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Three, MSFT has >90% of the wintel PC market share, so it may grow only at a rate slightly exceeding that of the wintel PC market (17% by some estimates). BGR, actually this represents only the lower end of its potential growth. 1) Its only the OS part of its business. 2) 17% represents only new PC purchases. 3) Upgrades, upgrades, upgrades. Your jaw would drop if you knew how much of corporate America still used Win3.1 and NT3.51. 4) Thats not even taking into account retail upgrades for consumers from 3.1, win95, etc. I agree with you regarding DELLs future, is is evident from my posts here, but don't short change MSFT <g>. Gary

To: BGR who wrote (47142)	2/15/1999 11:28:00 AM
From: RealMuLan	Respond to of 132070

I read on DELL thread that one guy said he picked up some Mar 80 put the week before last Friday, and already had 3 baggers. So you may be better off to go back to Dell thread for some shorting ideas. Edit: as far as I know nobody ever openly to call to short Dell on this thread that week.

To: BGR who wrote (47142)	2/15/1999 2:43:00 PM
From: Michael Bakunin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

You're right about the comparison being ludicrous, but I think you're mixed up. Microsquash is a monopolist. If they want to double their revenues, all they have to do is double their prices. Dell has to do it the old-fashioned way -- by growing sales and cutting costs. FD: no position in MSFT, puts on DELL. mb

To: BGR who wrote (47142)	2/15/1999 2:49:00 PM
From: Peter Singleton	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 132070

BGR, Comparing MSFT and Dell doesn't seem reasonable. We've been discussing the market dynamic, where units are continuing to grow, but ASPs are dropping fast enough so that revenues are flat or declining for the boxes. MSFT gets a fixed $ amount for the OS, so while units continue to rise, they win, with a marginal cost of $0 for each additional OS shipped, btw. But the box manufacturers lose, in aggregate, when overall revenues flatten or drop. Now, Dell can grab share, or can hold off the erosion of ASP by migrating its product mix to higher end boxes, but that's another story. MSFT is guaranteed a win in the market scenario as described, plus their upgrade revenues and applications sales [these guys coin money like a central bank] ... Dell has to make its numbers by ripping the food from his neighbors' hands. It can be done, but someone else has to lose for MD to win. Peter