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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (99494)	2/15/1999 11:56:00 AM
From: Jock Hutchinson	Read Replies (6) \| Respond to of 176387

Unfortuantely you seemed to have overlooked the impending disaster in DELL's fortunes that was clearly outlined in the same article: But recent data on worldwide PC sales for 1998 suggest Dell's meteoric rise may be slowing, a factor that also was cited after the stock's fall on Friday. According to International Data Corp., Dell's fourth-quarter computer shipments in the United States were only 2.6 percent higher than the third quarter. Meanwhile, industry shipments grew 13 percent. Worldwide, Dell's shipments improved about 13 percent over the third quarter, but total PC shipments surged 23 percent, IDC estimated. Some of the cheerleaders on this thread keep harping about the reliability of IDC's numbers, yet if one is to believe the above numbers, then clearly DELL is headed for a downslide in business--at best a declining growth rate. As the above figures demonstrate, DELL is underperforming the market by ten percentage points. When was the last time that happened? Let me think now. You have a company that is selling at three times the price to sales ratio that its competitors are, yet the company is underperforming those same competitors by 10 percentage points, and the company is still selling at three times the PE ratio of the same competitors. Sounds to me like more than a little crack in the hull of the good ship DELL. Frankly, the IDC numbers, if true, are outright ugly. Moreover, if you do believe Dan Niles' numbers, then the drop in shipments has just appeared within the last month, and it is a very pronounced drop that bodes very ominously for the near future. And what is the response of one of your thread leaders--Mr. Mohan? He takes out his Kai's Power Goo and presents the thread with a "picture" of Dan Niles. When you start attacking the credible messengers such as Dan Niles (who has been absolutely wrong on some past calls, but has been much more right than wrong lately), ignore chilling data that is right in your very face, and ignore the intensity of Friday's sell-off, then you are setting yourself up for the disaster that is now on the horizon--a disaster that almost surely indicates that DELL has already hit its high for the next twelve months.