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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (99526)	2/15/1999 12:27:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 176387

Jock- You overlook two important points: (1) Most PC manufacturers get a bigger bump in Q4 (than Dell) due to heavy consumer buying, especially for sub-1000 machines..a category Dell does not compete in....so, on a relative basis, these manufacturers look strong in Q4...but look relatively weaker come Q1 and Q3 (2) Compaq and breathern were still clearing out the channels in Q3, so less was sold into the channel than sold-out...IDC reports sales INTO the channel...therefore, the Q3 numbers (marketshare, total % of units) were skewed in Dell's favor in Q3...so Dell had a larger base to work off of (than usual).. By far, the most significant numbers (for Dell) are y-o-y unit, profit and earnings growth...although overall unit growth % rate (54%)has slowed a bit, this is offset by the growth in sales of higher margin products (notebooks, workstations, servers)... You seem to think Niles knows his stuff....If, indeed, what is suspected here is true....that Niles fails to account for around 300m in storage revenues (with FAT margins) in 4Q (mentioned nowhere in his report), and, as a result, he will be .02-.04 below actual earnings, and his 5.2B target will be way too low.......if so, Niles (and his team) has done a pretty lousy job of analysis this quarter, IMO....after all, how could they totally disregard a product line that generated 20-25% margins and 300m in revs....and get unit/rev figures (PC's, etc.) wrong to boot? If he is right, and Dell reports 5.2B in revs., and .30 or .31 in EPS, I'll be the first to say that we here screwed up, and we can pick up the "growth is slowing" argument in earnest...Don't hold your breath, though.... Come back on Wednesday Jock....I doubt you will...

To: Jock Hutchinson who wrote (99526)	2/15/1999 1:26:00 PM
From: Venkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Enjoy yourself here on the thread for your short stay should end tomorrow. The usual stay for the bear blowoffs are 1-2 wks..Then its put the ole tail between the legs and runoff.without even a goodbye..I believe history repeats its self...Of course.Luciferous <LT/LC> is an exception.She/he is a known loooooser and only has only a few cents left to play with..They are addicted to the pain they get from the dell humiliation and like most gluttens..she/he keeps coming back for more<pain.i know your way too smart for that and will take your spanking and go where no one has been before..Incase I dont get to say goodbye...Bye Jock oh boy oh boy..may the force be with you..When you poke red sticks a bull<dell> you will get ran over..Its always a bullish sign when the bears flood in for a kill..So I will be the little Venkster/Donnie throwing the kitchen sinc in the morning buying mo Dell...Good Luck...I do take on sidebets if you really feel gutsy..never bet with LT/Lc