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To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (5415)	2/15/1999 1:41:00 PM
From: Jing Qian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Frank, as to what future technology MSOs will use in 2010, I have to investigate. But technology will evolve with cable. Cable in the future will be thinner than a phone line, yet carrying bandwidth up to 100Mbps. The future cable will not base on coaxial HFC hardware. HFC will only be a interium medium. But the important point is, the current phone line will become obsolete, as well as the business of the RBOCs. Just like circuit switch networks to be replaced by packet switched networks, phone lines will be replaced by cable lines. The current HFC cables will last till 2005, after that, AT&T will upgrade it to a thin fiber based wire which preludes a pure fiber optic era. In 2010, the competing technologies will be: Cable vs. Low orbit satellites. Probably you have to find DSL in the San Jose Musuem of Technology.

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (5415)	2/15/1999 3:01:00 PM
From: E. Davies	Respond to of 29970

In other words, and I ask this in a genuine sense, how long will (could?) the current collision-domain approach now being used by the MSOs last, before it is thoroughly swamped with tomorrows traffic burdens, and before they recognize the merit to going pure FTTH? The world and technology move far slower than people with vision think it will. In 2010 plenty of people (probably even most of them) will still be using POTS over dialup lines, but not many for internet. Cable modems should have replaced dial-up years ago, but they didnt until technology could find no more way to reasonably squeeze data through the wire from the user to the ISP. Similarly I think that cable will last well past the point that fiber could take over by enhancing the technology to squeeze more through a less than perfect channel. They only take the "big vision" when small steps dont work anymore. I have no real worries about downstream bandwith over cable in the 20 year timeframe, the only real issue is when people start wanting to generate lots of upstream traffic as you point out. I dont know how they will handle increasing upstream bandwith, but I'm sure that somehow it can be done. Engineers make their living figuring out how to squeeze more data through a given bandwidth with cheaper and cheaper computing power. The 750Mhz bandwidth of cable leaves a lot of room to work with to avoid having to pay for fiber lines and fiber modems. I'd assume that replacing the repeaters to allow for more upstream would be cheaper than fiber. But of course this is beyond the topic of ATHM. When fiber happens the MSO's will be the ones doing it and ATHM will be providing the internet service. Eric