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Gold/Mining/Energy : Position Trading in Canada -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: keith massey who wrote (742)	2/15/1999 4:49:00 PM
From: Kevin Hamlin	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 2259

Keith, I understand your point about defining the bottom for JFM. Often it is prudent to wait for real confirmation. At times though, I do try and "pick off" the bottom. I took a look at who is really driving the price of the stock. Without a doubt on the selling side, it has been three houses. Since February 4th to the present, which was the day the bottom fell out of JFM: DS: -548,213 shares Yorkton -544,750 shares Goldman -117,465 shares The biggest seller after that was house 29, which sold around 22k in total...not enough to drive the stock. So lets make an assumption that these three are driving the price of this stock. Now by far the biggest chunk of this selling was by DS and Yorkton on Feb 4th and Feb 5th. The totals for these two days: DS -355,000 shares Yorkton -550,000 shares So DS and Yorkton wanted out (or more likely some fund manager didn't like getting burned by JFM and now is having a firesale, basically torturing the shareprice.) When DS and Yorkton and Goldman stop with the heavy selling pressure, it would be reasonable to assume it would be at that point that the price would bounce. Well after Feb 5th and to the present, Yorkton has actually been a net buyer (only slightly)....so they're now out of the selling picture. Goldman sold another 100k (81k on the 8th and 34k last Thursday. Nothing on Friday and none today....so i.m.h.o., they're in part responsible for keeping the price down, but now appear out. DS however, looks to be the one still "driving the bus". From Feb 5th to the present, they have moved out another 198,000 shares. What is kind of interesting though is that last Thursday they sold 33k, on Friday they got ugly and sold 111k,....but today they only sold 19k. Now the million dollar question is this: Is DS done selling big...or was today just a quiet day? For the bounce back up, two things need to happen. First, DS needs to be out of the picture...or at least not in it big like they were before. (Today's selling by them was fine by me!) This alone will cause the price to bounce. The second stage will be a bunch of people on the side (like yourself), looking for some further confirmation of the bottom. When they see that and come back in, again, an updraft. I guess it depends how close you want to try and play it. I would imagine there's enough bounce in this one that people entering at different points will all do fine. Today, I took my cue off of the resistance that JFM showed on Friday to further price declines despite a generally ugly day on the markets. As well, I took a cue off of the lack of selling pressure by DS...thinking maybe they're done. I bought in earlier today at $6.50...and took a little more even near the close at $6.70 after seeing how the rest of the day played out with DS (or more to the point..the lack of DS) Could they be back at it again tomorrow? Sure they could. I don't see the price going lower, but I guess anything is possible. Best wishes to all in JFM, what ever your entry point may be! Cheers Kevin