Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ian Davidson who wrote (99627)	2/15/1999 3:30:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Ian, don't hold your breath. I have the data here, and they clearly demonstrate that Burke is wrong because he does not acknowledge seasonality. For example, when you analyze quarterly data y/y Dell showed a worldwide unit increase of 56% compared to 17% for Compaq and 15% for all vendors. But if you look at sequential data you see that Dell showed a gain of just 13% compared to Compaq at 31% and 23% for all vendors. Now for some analysis. If one were to extrapolate for the year from these data we would get annualized rates of increase of 63% for Dell, 194.5% for Compaq and 128.9% for all vendors. But we know that overall computer demand increased by 15% for the year. So if sales were evenly distributed over the year we would expect all vendors to have grown by about 3.6%. Thus, there is no question of seasonality in the data here -- unless of course someone were fool enough to claim that computer demand was increasing at almost 130% per annum. Now we must deal with the issue of which way the seasonality ought to be adjust the results. I have received a pm from a contributor to the thread who has demonstrated that Dell historically "loses" market share in the fourth quarter. This is not surprising in view of the fact that its market is corporate accounts. Neither should it be surprising that other vendors, like CPQ are the beneficiaries of fourth quarter seasonality, given that a large portion of their sales is aimed at the retail consumer market. TTFN, CTC