To: long-gone who wrote (28322 ) 2/15/1999 6:34:00 PM From: Hawkmoon Read Replies (1) | Respond to
The 1998 Revision shows a devastating toll from AIDS with respect to mortality and population loss. In the 29 African countries in which the impact of AIDS was studied, life expectancy at birth is projected to decrease to 47 years in 1995-2000 whereas it would have expected to have reached 54 years, in the absence of the AIDS epidemic, a loss of 7 years. The demographic impact of AIDS is even more dramatic when one focuses on the hardest hit countries, for example the 9 countries with an adult HIV prevalence of 10 per cent or more: Botswana, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Rwanda, South Africa, Zambia and Zimbabwe. In these countries the average life expectancy at birth is estimated to reach 48 years in 1995-2000 whereas it would have been expected to reach 58 years in the absence of AIDS, a loss of 10 years. By 2010-2015, the average life expectancy at birth in these countries is projected to reach only 47 years, instead of 64 years in the absence of AIDS: 17 years of life expectancy lost to AIDS. Even in the worst cases, the toll of AIDS is not expected to lead to declines of population, because fertility in these countries is high. In the hardest-hit country, Botswana, with an adult HIV/AIDS prevalence of 25 per cent, the population in 2025 is expected to be 23 per cent smaller than what it would have been in the absence of AIDS. Nevertheless, the population is still expected to nearly double between 1995 and 2050. popin.org
