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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (99770)	2/15/1999 7:30:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Talk about smoke screens, You put words in my mouth and then accuse me of not backing them up. Where I come from that's called chutzpah. My criticism stands: you cannot make quarter to quarter comparisons about market share in an industry where many of the players have highly seasonal sales. I argued that you cannot logically talk about market share by a single quarter's sales -- regardless of whether they are 4th quarter which would support your argument very neatly, or if they were first quarter which could be used equally artfully to demonstrate that Dell would have a 90% market share in 3 years. It's all bogus and you know it. If you cannot deconstruct the seasonality, which I have neither the time not the inclination to do, you can use year over year comparisons, which, for obvious reasons eliminates the issue of seasonality. Those data clearly show that Dell is gaining market share. With honest people that ought to end the argument. Now to your second point. A sale is considered a sale when the goods are in the hands of the purchaser or loaded on a common carrier. That is a sale by definition. That eliminates the possibility of channel subterfuges to a company like either Dell or GTW. So we come to the backend loaded argument once again. As I said, in Europe terms are traditionally longer than they are in the US. As Dell's sales increase in Europe you expect the receivables period to go up. Since you are the one positing all kinds of underhanded shenannigans, perhaps it is up to you to state exactly what you expect Dell to have done. Innuendo does not hack it. BTW, prejudice is a judgement arrived at without the benefit of fact. I think that fits your arguments exactly. CTC

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (99770)	2/15/1999 7:53:00 PM
From: BGR	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

MB, Let's get this straight. This, I believe, is what CTC's argument is: 1. DELL has very little seasonality in QoQ sales. 2. The whole PC market has considerable seasonality in QoQ sales. 3. Neither DELL nor the whole PC market has significant seasonality in YoY sales. Therefore, unless one is willing (deliberately or otherwise, the choice is left open) to make the mistake of comparing seasonal numbers to non-seasonal ones, one should always use a time series type of analysis of the entire market's YoY data (thus smoothing out seasonal fluctuations) wrt DELL's YoY data when checking for market share growth. Otherwise, as CTC noted, comparison of temperatures from December and June of the same year would lend higher (and misleading) credence to evidence of global warming then would comparisons of temperatures from June of last year and this year. Your argument of 3Q vs. 4Q is not wrong, only misleading, perhaps because you didn't use any statistical techniques to do your analysis. -BGR.