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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockycd who wrote (6366)	2/16/1999 9:06:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

CYCLES start of week 1 current week # tendency 10-week cycle December 17, 1998 9 BEARISH 20-week cycle October 8, 1998 19 BEARISH 40-week cycle October 8, 1998 19 NEUTRAL Bullish tendencies strongest in first third of each cycle. Moderate tendencies in second third (week 4-7, 7-13, and 14-26 respectively) of each cycle. Bearish tendencies strongest in last third of each cycle. Start of next 10-week and 20-week cycle start about Feb 25. The 6-7 weeks prior to Feb 25 have BEARISH inclinations in the 10- and 20-week cycles, and NEUTRAL tendency for 40-week cycle. End of 9-month (40-week cycle) is approximately early July. When the trough is established, start the count over again. Most of the bull market gains is in the first 13-weeks of the cycle since most of the dominant cycles are BULLISH. After an extended bear run as in 1990 and 1994, the cycle is extended to 12-18 months. The leadership group appears to be Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment: AMAT, KLAC, TER, NVLS, et al. The Fidelity Select Electronics (FSELX) and Rydex Electronics (RYSIX) are strongest funds.

To: stockycd who wrote (6366)	2/16/1999 9:17:00 AM
From: Les H	Respond to of 99985

From DecisionPoint: We once again have an unusually high number of stock splits (14 so far of our list of 152 stocks) scheduled to occur between January and May of this year, most of which are clustered in February and March, and I would guess that there is some trouble brewing for the market not too far in the future. This is not a precise top picking indicator, but the April market top we have projected with our Cycle work would be consistent with a cluster of splits centered in February and March. That doesn't mean we'll see another bear market, but we should be prepared for at least a substantial correction.