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Posted at 8:10 p.m. PST Friday, January 29, 1999
How Much Is Too Much?
Bigger, faster machines aren't for everyone
BY DOUG BEDELL
Dallas Morning News
FORTUNES have been made betting that personal computer
shoppers have an insatiable thirst for zippier processors, more
gigabytes of storage and slicker Internet performance.
The latest generation of Pentium II 450 megahertz-based
Windows machines with monstrous hard drives and high-end
options may prompt consumers to cry, ''Enough, already!''
What possible use is a 13-gigabyte hard drive to home users?
Why shell out $2,000 or more to move beyond a 300 MHz unit to the top of the line? And why
should we worship their DVD drives, 100 MHz buses and snazzy options, anyway?
''I just want to get something I don't have to worry about for a couple of years; is that too much
to ask?'' says Scott Brundrett, a Houston dentist who wrestled with the upgrade dilemma over
Christmas.
''I know my 100 MHz machine is a clunker, but I have no idea what I need next.''
The answer according to computer retailers and honchos from Gateway, Compaq and Dell is
fairly simple.
If the machine is to serve the basic word processing, e-mail and Internet needs of the modern
wired family, the 450s can be ignored.
Lower speeds of 266 or 300 MHz, configured with 32 megabytes of random-access memory and
a 56 kilobits-per-second modem, can handle those functions just fine for $1,000 or less, whether
the processor comes from Intel or rivals such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) or Cyrix. That
realization is how Apple decided to configure its new iMac, which became a huge hit with
consumers last fall.
''The ultimate is not for everyone,'' says Mike Rubin, director and general manager for Compaq's
Presario desktop division. ''It's not just the processor. It's the whole array of digital technology
options that should draw you to the upper end of the spectrum.''
Says John Staples, owner of Computer Junction in Dallas: ''A household computer doesn't need
the massive speed you're talking about. Heavy-duty game users, yes. Mom and Pop, no.''
Today's 450s are the current top of the line for cutting-edge home computing enthusiasts. Wait a
year and the same speed will be readily available for much less.
If it's a ''my-meg's-bigger-than-your-meg'' war with your neighbors, the upgrade leap is
inevitable. Intel will ship 500 MHz processors will be released in March. Hold fast to the moment
and your wallet.
With an eye on the options available at the top, here's a look at the cost-benefit considerations.
''Remember,'' says Mike Ritter, product marketing manager for Gateway, ''we're trying to think
about what you may not need today, but might want tomorrow.
''With these machines, you're trying to buy a little obsolescence protection. They're not for
everyone.''
Gaming drives the high-end market these days. And that, analysts say, is the primary reason home
computers are being upgraded to the 450 MHz level.
Graphic-intensive programs such as Adobe's Photoshop and Corel's Photopaint also demand the
quickness of the latest processors. And an ''intense user'' -- a person who opens dozens of
windows at a time to perform a variety of tasks -- definitely will benefit.
But a Microsoft study recently showed the average home user has only three windows open at
any one moment. Such habits aren't likely to approach the demand 450s were designed to meet.
''People with 233 MHz Pentiums, they're doing everything -- surfing the Internet with a good
modem, word processing, that sort of thing -- very, very efficiently,'' says Ronnie Neighbours,
owner of Take It Home Computers in Arlington, Texas. ''They'll play about 90 percent of the
games out there now.
''It's the game industry that's actually pushing the Pentium IIs and the high end. That's a whole
different story.''
Neighbours has a client who has spent thousands on upgrades over the years simply to play
interactive games on a local network at his home.
''He and his son play each other in interactive Quake constantly,'' Neighbours says. ''He's the
kind of person who needs and wants to upgrade all the time.''
Typical home users are blessed with the knowledge that most Mac and Windows operating
systems aren't changing that much. And most software being written today for either platform isn't
so radically different that it will tax a lower speed processor.
Windows 98, for example, creates about the same workload as its predecessor, Windows 95.
And the same holds for the Mac 8.5 operating system upgrade from 8.0.
''Processor speeds generally have outpaced the needs of software,'' says Compaq's Rubin. ''But
I wouldn't expect the rapid rate of technological advancement to slow down. People should
expect the rate at which this industry moves to continue.
''With a 450, you should keep pace with the software this year and into the year 2000.''
To be sure, a high-end processor will help surf the Internet by decoding and displaying images
faster. But the real bottleneck for Internet download speeds continues to be at its access points.
''If you want speed there, buy a cable modem or (an) ISDN (high-speed telephone line),''
Neighbours says.
''The real answer to upgrades lies in what you're doing with the computer,'' Staples adds. ''If
you're personally happy with the speed of it, take it once a year to a shop and have them suggest
where you might improve.''
Most of the 450 packages marketed today feature the ''100 MHz bus.'' The bus is a computer
term for the hardware that accesses the processor. It's like a highway. More lanes equal more
ability to handle traffic. The wider the highway, the faster the traffic moves.
Ultimate gamers are virtually the only home users who would appreciate the difference between a
100 MHz bus and the slower speeds of older motherboards.
Few applications available today can take advantage of a 100 MHz bus, just as few demand the
speed of a 450 processor.
And remember: Industry analysts predict the Pentium II, 450 MHz machine with 128 megabytes
of memory and an ample 10-gigabyte hard drive that you buy today for $2,500 will be on the
market next year for less than $1,000.
Says Ritter of Gateway: ''On most applications, the difference between a 350 and a 450 is the
blink of an eye, or a fraction of a blink, really.''
In other words, if money's an issue, you can wait.
Adds Ritter: ''As people use more complex software to play new games and edit digital
photographs, then it will come down to the question, 'Do you mind watching the hourglass as the
computer works, or not?' That's when they'll feel the need.''
Back in the ancient days of 1992, operating systems were content with 500 megabytes of space
on the hard drive. Then Bill Gates and Microsoft began adding so many lines of code to their
operating system that older hard drives quickly became worthless.
''Four years ago, I didn't know why I would ever need over 450 megs on my drive,'' Ritter says.
Today, hard drives of 10 or more gigabytes are common offerings in the 450 packages, and Ritter
notes, no one can imagine using that kind of space either.
But as digital image processing, video editing and game programs progress over the next two
years, chances are the space will be welcomed.
''These big games like Quake II take up 450 megabytes by themselves,'' Neighbours says.
''They're getting very popular. You put that on a 6.4-gig hard drive, and watch what happens.''
Hard disk space gives the user flexibility for future digital applications and modern gaming. If those
aren't anticipated needs, hard drive space shouldn't be a priority when considering an upgrade.
Many of the 450 packages are designed to take advantage of technologies that are just emerging,
such as DVD-ROM drives and decoder cards that make it possible to watch full-length movies
on a PC.
But DVD players, just like videocassettes before them, are coming to television, too.
''I just don't foresee that many people watching movies on the computer,'' Neighbours says.
''And you can run DVD all day long on a 200 or 233 machine with no problem. You don't need
450 to get there.''
Future high-end games may use the technology, but they are not yet prevalent in the marketplace.
Some companies such as Compaq also are outfitting their hardware packages to accept special
adapters necessary to plug in flat panel monitors. Next year, as prices begin dropping from the
current $900 for 17-inch viewable screens, that could become an issue for home users.
Videoconferencing may take flight someday. But that technology seems low on consumer wish
lists for reasons still not fully understood by Intel and other manufacturers.
Compaq, Dell and other box builders are also starting to offer top-of-the-line systems ready for
high-speed cable modems or Digital Subscriber Line (DSL) phone service. But these services are
still not widely available.
So the home computer user should look down the road at anticipated needs before taking the
upgrade plunge, measure the size of his or her wallet, then hang on for dear life.
When is ''Enough enough?''
Answers Compaq's Rubin: ''When you run out of money.''
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