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To: GST who wrote (40226)	2/15/1999 10:56:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164684

GST, <I feel relieved cause I have made some 'bear market' bets. > I think one should not succumb to relief yet. However there is a factor that does not change which is unless Japanese rates go up no one will invest in their bonds, except a captive domestic entity (such as Postal savings). Otherwise Japan banks will borrow money at .15% and buy US bonds at 5%. Why would they invest in JGB's paying 2.8% ? So if they want to use their money at home they have to 1- print new money. 2- raise rates. to re-iterate what you told me, they decided to avoid #1. So it has to be #2.