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To: GST who wrote (40228)2/15/1999 11:29:00 PM
From: Sarmad Y. Hermiz  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
GST,

<-the yen is falling sharply tonight, not rising >

Yes. Right. Right. 2%. The yen was at 150/dollar a few months ago. Whether it is 114.4 or 116 is the same thing isn't it ? (unless you are a currency trader).

Now regarding bearish bet on US market. Everyone says US interest rates will not go up much, in the absence of inflation. Your bet is based on the money flowing out as a reason for rates to go up, hurting stocks and bonds. Japanese investors might sell their US holdings. But MUST they sell US stocks ? Your answer is yes to fund their governments new bonds. To agree to do that they want competitive rates. Meaning higher rates.

Higher rates demand a stronger yen, but it is weakening tonight.
However it is near a 52 wk high. So the bearish case has not unravelled. It just has not strengthened.