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Politics : Ask Michael Burke -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (47320)	2/16/1999 6:12:00 AM
From: valueminded	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 132070

Earlie If you have Dell puts, you would be well advised to have cashed out on Friday. I believe that Dell will come in with a "surprisingly good quarter given the difficult environment" and will beat the "lowered estimate or wispered numbers" It appears based on all the "news - if you can call it that" that they are setting up to beat the numbers. ie Given the valuation (price/book of 50) price/earnings of 96 etc, they are doing a AG, "setting up a soft landing" You see, whisper numbers go both ways, and now, I believe they have lowered the "whisper numbers" sufficiently that there is no danger of missing them. Just my opinion of course.

To: Earlie who wrote (47320)	2/16/1999 9:55:00 AM
From: BGR	Respond to of 132070

Earlie, I won't, at least for the time being. :-) I think that you cannot use a traditional estimate like price-to-book which was appropriate for smokestack industries for a company like DELL whose major strength is it's successful implementation of a world-class supply chain management system. You may argue that anyone of it's competitors can buy the same system from ITWO (or MANU if they are so inclined) but still successful implementation (an elusive factor which is hard to quantitatively measure) is a big wild card. The stock was hit that hard because of the recent sharp rise in price. But short-term fluctuations are random in any event and have very little, if any, effect in the long run. I will check out your previous posts wrt DELL's valuation model. As for leaks, I am sure that they occur (which is unfortunate, as retail investors get the shaft). But given the backdrop of how events unfolded on Friday, I would be surprised if this was a leak. Best! -BGR.