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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee who wrote (100200)	2/16/1999 11:08:00 AM
From: Calvin	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Whisper, whisper. FWIW here's new info from earningswhispers.com One of the most anticipated earnings report each quarter is Dell Computers' (DELL), who is reporting after the market close today. Dell has consistently beaten estimates, but has fallen short of the whisper numbers the past few quarters. But this quarter, there have been some negative "whispering" among the analysts, though most of it has been made public. The loudest whisper came from Dan Niles, who follows Dell for BancBoston Robertson Stephens. Niles stated on Friday that he expects sales to fall short of the estimated $5.5 billion by about $300 million. His reasoning is due to increased competition in the corporate market and direct sales, primarily from Compaq. Niles' comments were followed by an announcement from Salomon Smith Barney and CS First Boston stating similar concerns. All three expect earnings to be inline with the consensus estimate of $0.31 per share. It is uncommon for analysts to make such a strong public announcement that close to earnings without knowing some solid numbers. Therefore, we lowered our whisper number to $0.31 on Friday down from $0.33. Despite the loud statements made on Friday, the large number of those closely following the company are much more optimistic. The majority of our sources especially don't agree with the analysts' statements made on Friday and have been referred to as the silent majority. It seems that while sales of desktop computers to corporate users might have been flat this past quarter, sales of higher-priced servers and notebooks have been strong. In fact, we have heard that overall revenues will be strong while earnings will be held back somewhat by increased expenses such as marketing - quite the opposite of what the three analysts said on Friday. At the high-end of the whispering is the hope based on what Intel (INTC) and Microsoft (MSFT) did this past quarter. Both companies soundly beat their consensus estimates recently, and the thought is that Dell is the primary reason. Therefore, between the analysts who made their comments on Friday and those with high expectations, the range of whispers is $0.31 to $0.37. For conservative reasons, we have posted the $0.31 stated by the analysts on Friday. However, the true, or consensus, whisper number is $0.33. There are 25 analysts following Dell, with the top estimate being $0.32 and the low estimate being $0.28. The consensus estimate for the current quarter has not changed since Dell reported earnings last quarter of $0.28. After adjusting for splits, Dell has beaten the consensus estimate by one cent four out of the last five quarters. You might also note that Prudential Securities reiterated a strong buy recommendation today. You can hear Dell's conference call online starting at 5:30 PM EST at dell.com. You will also be able to see the earnings report around that time at stockselector.com. Some related companies are also reporting earnings today. Most significantly are Applied Materials (AMAT) and Hewlett-Packard (HWP). Applied Materials is expected to report earnings of $0.06, while our whisper number is $0.07. Some are expecting AMAT to report earnings of $0.08. The range of estimates among the 22 analysts following AMAT is $0.02 to $0.08. Our whisper number of Hewlett-Packard is $0.89, which is one cent above the top analyst's estimate of $0.88. The consensus is $0.83 and the lowest estimate $0.80.

To: Lee who wrote (100200)	2/16/1999 11:36:00 AM
From: Mohan Marette	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Global Economy: Back to Normal?-Courtsey Morgan Stanley Dean Witter. Hi Lee: Here is an assessment of global economy by Stephen Roach of Morgan Stanley,see what you can come up with from this,in you spare time of course. ================================= Feb.16,1999 By:Stephen Roach (New York) Healing in the global economy now appears to be under way. Risks are finally beginning to tip to the upside of our growth estimates in the crisis economies of Asia and Latin America. In the context of ongoing resilience in the United States and an increasingly mixed picture in Europe, this is at odds with the view that the world's major central banks will continue to prime the global liquidity pump. For overbought bond markets -- and for equity markets that have enjoyed great valuation support from the flight to quality into bonds -- this could prove to be a formidable challenge. Fully 19 months after the global currency crisis began, world financial markets may well be nearing the end of a long detour. Directional shifts in forecast revisions often provide a good early warning sign for major shifts in financial markets. On that basis, MSDW's global economics team is, at long last, beginning to contemplate upward revisions to our growth forecasts in the crisis economies of Asia and Latin America. For non-Japan Asia, our hope stems largely from the confluence of recovering currencies and related reductions in interest rates; this has led to stirrings on the export front that we believe are about to be accompanied by a gradual upturn in domestic demand. At the same time, we draw added encouragement from indications that foreign capital is now returning to the region, underscored by distinct signs of a pick-up in cross-border M&A activity; it is public knowledge that our own corporate finance calendar now has some 60 deals in the pipeline for the region, four to five times our normal backlog. Taking all this into consideration, Tim Condon is now stressing the upside risks to his 1999 growth estimates for Korea (-0.4%), Malaysia (-1.0%), and Singapore (-0.6%). We're starting to put a similar spin on our Latin American prognosis. Chip Brown just raised his 2000 growth forecast for Brazil to 3.0% from 1.0%, largely reflecting his belief that Brazil will stay the course of monetary discipline while it attempts to orchestrate a more enduring fiscal fix. This points to an eventual recovery of an increasingly undervalued real, an outcome which ultimately offers greater hope for interest rate relief and a subsequent rebound in real economic growth in 2000. Moreover, we are holding to our above-consensus 3% estimates for Mexico over the 1999-2000 interval, especially in light of a well supported peso, related reductions in Mexican interest rates, and solid external demand from the NAFTA bloc. In the industrial world, financial market sentiment is also shifting away from the crisis drill. Europe still seems caught in a classic vise between well-maintained consumer demand and faltering industrial activity; however, the various business sentiment surveys are starting to flash signs of stability, a development which challenges our below-consensus 1999 European growth forecast (+1.6%), as well as our aggressive call for a 75 basis point ECB easing by this summer. Indeed, euro money markets are tilting away from the vulnerability play and back toward resilience by now discounting only about 20 bps of ECB easing in the first half of 1999, half the expectations of just two weeks ago. A similar assessment of the Fed and an undeniably vigorous US economy is now filtering into the American yield curve. Late last year, the short end of the curve was priced for fully two 25 basis point easings in the first half of 1999; courtesy of last week's sharp sell-off, US money markets are now priced for a bit of Fed tightening for the first time since the crisis began nearly two years ago Japan remains the outlier. While the data have recently flashed signs of some encouragement on the recovery front, Robert Feldman continues to believe such indications will prove short-lived for a structurally impaired Japanese economy. But whether or not that turns out to be the case, the nation's bond market seems headed for further trouble. If Japan finally recovers -- an outcome we doubt -- bonds will correct for classic cyclical reasons. But even if we're right and recovery is aborted, Japanese government bonds seem destined to be hit by a classic overhang of excess supply. In any case, we would now place the equilibrium yield on JGBs in the 2.5% to 3.0% zone, consistent with our view that Japan's fix will ultimately come with a steep price tag. As the world (ex Japan) returns to normal, financial markets will be forced to come to grips with a very different valuation structure. Global bond markets should be the first to bear the brunt of any repricing of systemic risk. In particular, government bonds should cease being priced for their safe-haven allure and return to a valuation framework dominated by the combination of inflation risk and any disparities between supply and demand. In Japan, it's all about supply and demand. But in the US, the recent correction in bonds has been dominated by rising inflationary expectations; the 10-year inflationary premium embedded in the TIPS market now stands at 1.25%, nearly 0.6 percentage point above that prevailing last October when bond yields hit their all-time lows. Despite this sharp move, the inflationary premium still stands far below the historical average of 3.0%, underscoring our long standing view that equilibrium yields for 30-year Treasuries are well above 6%. Consequently, to the extent that it's back to anything close to historical norms, the global bond market correction has considerably further to go. That, in turn, poses real challenges to the equity valuation framework that has underpinned the great bull run of the 1990s. Such may well be the ultimate price of healing in the global economy -- financial assets that are priced increasingly on the basis of fundamentals rather than on the distortions of a world in crisis.