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Technology Stocks : LAST MILE TECHNOLOGIES - Let's Discuss Them Here -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (2887)	2/16/1999 2:11:00 PM
From: MikeM54321	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

"This is why I maintain the opinion that voice over IP will still be several years in coming, knowing what it took to get circuit switched voice over HFC up and running." Frank / Denver, I would have to agree with Denver's statement above. Not from the technical perspective that you guys have, but just what I've learned investing in tech stocks for 14 years. We've all read incredible amounts of press releases announcing the great arrival of some new technology. Only to see about 90% of them fade out of sight. The other 10% usually ends up taking at least DOUBLE the estimated time projected to really produce working products. I'm guessing VoIP will also be at the minimum, two or three years from becoming mainstream. It wouldn't surprise me if it ended up taking five years. In the meantime, MSO's need something that is, "here and now." So IMHO, I'm betting (whoops--investing) that the circuit-switched cable phone makers will do well. Although I am somewhat anxious for another partnership(like AT&T/TCI), merger, buyout, etc. to be announced. I'm not sure what percentage of the country is covered by TCI and Time Warner, but I would think there are still a lot of customers out there not covered by these two MSOs. Maybe some MSO's will go it alone, like a few have already, and offer phone service on their own. But I can't imagine them staying completely independent for long. Just a couple of more big announcments will really get the momentum going for some of our, "last mile," investments. MikeM(From Florida)

To: Frank A. Coluccio who wrote (2887)	2/16/1999 7:03:00 PM
From: Bernard Levy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 12823

Hi Frank: Concerning the reference infrastructure for broadband wireless, it would involve fiber to the cell node, and a relatively fine sectorization of each cell. The Cellular Vision scheme did not really include sectorization. The first generation HP LMDS system had 4 sectors per cell. I think newer systems will be able to do better. The 2 key elements delaying broadband wireless deployment for residential customers in 20GHz and beyond range are: a) the need for inexpensive repeaters to get around the line of sight requirement, and b) the need to develop wireless ATM or IP over wireless software. This software will allow dynamic BW allocation. Several vendors have already working software (Stanford Telecom, Hughes Network, and soon Ensemble Communications for IP over wireless). However, the standard setting process is just starting. On the repeater front, I am less aware of new developments. The key here is that while broadband wireless can be delivered inexpensively to businesses (large and medium size office buildings), the economics are not as favorable for the residential market. So, current broadband wireless CLECS (WCII, TGNT, and soon NXLK) are going after the low hanging fruit, and leaving the residential market for later, with the hope that deployment costs will come down. Waiting too long may be a mistake-- for example, all of the apartment buildings in NY to which RCNC is bringing fiber could have been reached more cheaply with wireless equipment. Best regards, Bernard Levy