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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (28207)	2/16/1999 12:13:00 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 70976

Jeffrey, the Soundview 12 month target of 75 [if it is to be believed] would not make many investors buy AMAT here. Too much risk, too little gain. Gottfried

To: Jeffrey D who wrote (28207)	2/16/1999 12:26:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Respond to of 70976

Intel could jump-start 300mm: semibiznews.com Intel could jump-start 300-mm By Jack Robertson and J. Robert Lineback SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- The event that could launch the next wafer generation may be finally about to happen. Ten months after Intel Corp. postponed the decision to go forward with its 300-mm development fab, the industry leader is apparently ready now to restart the $1.5 billion project in Hillsboro, Ore. When the announcement comes, most likely in March, the chip maker also plans to detail a $10 billion program to add 12-inch wafer production at several of its worldwide plants over the next decade, according to sources inside and outside the company. Intel won't confirm that it's going ahead with the delayed fab, but managers involved with the project say the facility will be equipped later this year to begin pilot runs with 12-inch wafers by 2000. The apparent restart of the project comes after Intel's recent survey of production equipment suppliers and the Sematech consortium indicated that sufficient 300-mm tools were now available to begin equipping the Hillsboro fab. It was concern over tool availability and general business conditions that caused Intel last April to delay the purchase of 300-mm gear. "Everything is moving ahead now," states one Intel manager who asked not to be identified. Final approval of the project still has to come from Intel CEO Craig Barrett, but his sign-off appears certain now, according to another company source. Any decision to move ahead and equip the nearly completed fab building in Hillsboro, should give the industry's stalled 300-mm transition a much-needed boost, agree industry analysts and managers. It couldn't come too fast for the equipment industry. After more than five years of development and tool testing, the capital equipment suppliers have already spent $5.4 billion on 300-mm R&D, estimates analyst G. Dan Hutcheson, president of VLSI Research Inc. in San Jose. Total revenues to date from 300-mm prototypes and initial production systems are less than $60 million, according to industry estimates. This total came in surprisingly low despite the considerable efforts by trade groups and chip manufacturing consortia to accelerate the transition from 200-mm to 300-mm wafers. Attempts to jump-start the 300-mm transition were nearly derailed last summer when equipment suppliers and chip makers began blaming each other for delays in prototype tools and pilot lines. But after the public debate quieted down, the battered 300-mm movement gradually began moving again in late 1998. And it was this slow, but steady progress that led Intel to decide it was time to restart its project. When Intel's 300-mm development fab starts up, it is expected to focus on 0.13-micron process technologies. One major equipment vendor -- Applied Materials Inc. in Santa Clara, Calif. -- reportedly is planning to re-institute its 300-mm tool program, based on a large order for systems from Intel that are slated to go into the Hillsboro fab. Applied halted much of its 300-mm efforts last year when chip makers began backing away from pilot line projects. Intel plans over the next couple of years to expand its 300-mm development fab into a high-volume production facility. The timing of this buildup will depend upon market demand and the success of early 12-inch manufacturing tools. Intel's eagerly awaited move to 300-mm will help push the industry transition, according to experts, but the global buildup of 12-inch wafer capacity will be gradual. Volume production likely will not be feasible until after 2002, predicts Clark J. Fuhs, director of the semiconductor manufacturing analysis group at Dataquest. "We think up to 8 or 10 pilot lines will be built by 2001 in some way, shape or form," the analyst estimates. But "the economics of going to 300-mm are still up in the air," he cautions. "Once you get to the 2002-2003 time frame, you realize that fewer wafer starts will be needed in 300-mm fabs [to meet market demand]. It [may be] possible to buy less equipment and have fewer wafer starts [in order] to produce the same amount of products in terms of square inches of silicon," Fuhs says. The key job of early pilot lines will be to figure out the economics of the 300-mm fabs as well as to integrate the new sets of tools and processes. Dataquest estimates that 5% of the industry's total spending on fab equipment will go for 300-mm tools this year, or only about $76 million. But that's still up from $35.4 million in 1998, or about 2.3% of total equipment purchases that year. After a few years, sales of 300-mm systems should start climbing rapidly. By 2004, they will reach $11 billion, or about 29% of total fab equipment sales, Fuhs estimates. "It ramps up pretty steeply after 2004," the San Jose-based analyst says. His forecast is based on the assumption that two companies -- Intel and most likely Texas Instruments Inc. in Dallas -- will start ordering 300-mm gear for pilot lines in 1999. Orders for the new-generation gear also will continue at the world's only existing 300-mm pilot line, which was started in 1998 by Siemens AG and Motorola Inc. in Dresden, Germany. "We now assume that four more 300-mm pilot lines will be started in 2000, followed by two more in 2001," Fuhs says. "It will take each company about two years from the start of a pilot line," he figures, "to reach a level of maturity [where] 300-mm becomes economically feasible." Intel's decision undoubtedly will bring 300-mm back into the headlines, but Fuhs and other industry observers still believe that most semiconductor manufacturers will remain cautious about spending any money on 12-inch fabs until they have recovered fully from the recent three-year slump in chip revenues. "What will persuade fence sitters to start up their programs again is healthy finances," Fuhs figures. "We are projecting that the financial conditions of chip companies will certainly get better in the year 2000, and we expect by then to see some [300-mm] projects being rejuvenated again."