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To: John Graybill who wrote (43056)	2/16/1999 3:05:00 PM
From: DJBEINO	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Big Chipmakers Plan Flat Capital Investment In FY99 Wednesday, February 17, 1999 TOKYO (Nikkei)--Five leading semiconductor makers will likely spend a combined 430-460 billion yen on plant and equipment in fiscal 1999, roughly flat from planned capital spending for the current year, companies officials said Tuesday. Industry leader NEC Corp. (6701) will likely invest 130-150 billion yen on a group basis, compared with 150 billion yen this term. Consolidated spending by Toshiba Corp. (6502) will total about 120 billion yen, Hitachi Ltd. (6501) 50 billion yen and Fujitsu Ltd. (6702) 80 billion yen -- all unchanged from fiscal 1998. Mitsubishi Electric Corp. (6503) is forecast to spend 50-60 billion yen, up from 45 billion yen a year earlier. The five chipmakers are finalizing investment plans and will probably lock in figures for the next term by mid-March. Their combined capital investment peaked at 890 billion yen in fiscal 1995, but declined in each of the following three years. All five are expected to post group operating losses in fiscal 1998, hit by the sluggish market for memory chips. The semiconductor makers' capital investment won't recover until after 2000, industry observers predict.

To: John Graybill who wrote (43056)	2/16/1999 3:43:00 PM
From: Earlie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 53903

John: I agree with your comments, particularly with respect to DELL. My own expectation is that the company will miss the rev number (probably come in close to Nile's number), but barely make the bottom line expectation. Unless Michael wows them in the conference, they'll still bloody his stock a bit if my assumptions prove accurate. If the numbers are even mildly low of estimates, expect serious blood tomorrow,....across the sector. If AMAT also trudged in with some disappointment, "fire one", "fire two", "fire three". Taking as optimistic a view as I can, decent numbers from both would give us a short breather, but only until warnings period gets underway in a couple of weeks. Now that will provide some waterline torpedos. (g) Best, Earlie

To: John Graybill who wrote (43056)	2/17/1999 9:51:00 AM
From: John Graybill	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 53903

Miscellany: 1) Trading curbs are now 180 DJII points instead of 50. That started yesterday. Watch for lots of +/- 100-200 point days. The reason for the increasing hue and cry over "day traders" should now be obvious to all -- They are beginning the final shake-out phase and don't want anybody making a dime off Their maneuverings but themselves. 2) Michael DELL speaks on CNBC today at 11:05 EST. The AMAT guy was on at 9:30 already, but that was too damn early for me out here in CA. Check the AMAT thread to see what he said. 3) They opened the DJII stocks one at a time today like they have done two or three times before in times of real panic. I don't know why this works, but it effectively thwarts the natural inclination of free market participants to sell everything they have. CNBC helped as well by not showing the way-negative NASDAQ and SPX tickers until at least 10 minutes into the beginning of the session. 4) SOX virtually unchanged? MU up 1 as I write? I guess AMAT is trumping DELL for now. 5) Day-traders: let's look for the 10:00/10:30 boomerang. If the broad markets start going up at 10:00, I'll need no excuse whatsoever to go short MU at 10:30.