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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BelowTheCrowd who wrote (17453)	2/16/1999 4:17:00 PM
From: Oeconomicus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 18691

DELL: 31 cents, but "only" $5.17 billion revenue. 2:1 split. Bob PS: HWP 92 cents vs ests of 83 cents.

To: BelowTheCrowd who wrote (17453)	2/16/1999 4:24:00 PM
From: Don Westermeyer	Respond to of 18691

In short, I'm not certain that 1998 wasn't an aberration rather than the beginning of a downtrend. Of course, one datapoint isn't enough to prove it either way. Well, I personally don't think it will actually turn into a downtrend. I think revenue growth will slow significantly though. I don't really follow Dell too closely, but have to believe things will get tougher (I didn't say unprofitable) for all box makers in the future as the product becomes more and more a commodity. * Asia was a fairly big issue in 1998. Not so much for Dell, but definitely for others. I believe Asia actually helped some companies like Dell where no doubt some components got cheaper. I don't now how much though. I wouldn't be first in line to short Dell, but don't think it is a good bet on the long side at this time either.