Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6438)	2/16/1999 5:33:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Respond to of 99985

At 5 PM DELL 76 to 76 1/2, HWP 70 Haim

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (6438)	2/17/1999 6:31:00 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Well I was busy so I didn't get everything done I wanted to but looked through some of my sector charts and was actually surprised by what I saw. First the warning sign that hit me hard. The HFX which I have found dictates much of the action is perched dangerously close to support which if it fails doesn't look good. Also despite heavy losses and news out of Iraq etc, Oil is weak still and should drop further. Natural gas despite all the hype I read is looking weak also as are chemical CEX, Gaming etc. On the bullish side were Banks, Insurance, Retail, Brokers, Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare. I pulled all the OEX open contracts and weighed them for puts versus calls and found that at the closing quote of 619, we bisected the weighting perfect. There are 2000 more calls open above us at 625 strike, then it jumps to around 5000 more calls at 630, 9000 635s, 10K 640s etc. There are 1000 more puts at 620, 3000 more puts at 615, 6000 610s, 4600 605s etc. The heaviest weighting of calls and Puts is at 610 with 10K calls and 16750 puts so 27K contracts could be made almost worthless if we closed there Friday. Didn't have time to check smaller indexes etc but it wouldn't surprise me to see the OEX at least get down to the 610 area to unwind some calls at least. There are 12K puts around 600 so I doubt they will let it get that low for long since counting the 610s, that would be almost 37K put contracts in the money just by letting it slide 10 points. Of course this assumes that market manipulation takes place which we know never happens. EDIT- took leave for the rest of the week so I should be around during the day. Lee