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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (28263)	2/16/1999 6:19:00 PM
From: Ross	Respond to of 70976

"AMAT has to and will come back to the 50s" Well, it may, but why does it "have to?" "Look at MUs chart. From the 80s back to the 60s and it is still way to expensive." True, but Micron loses money with each piece of low value, high volume product that it sells. Applied makes money with each piece of high value, low volume product that it sells. I cannot tell you what Applied's stock price will be tomorrow, but I wouldn't use the same system to value these companies.

To: Michael Ohlendorf who wrote (28263)	2/16/1999 6:28:00 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

Re: <<AMAT has to and will come back to the 50s.>> Maybe, but it's hard to see how this earnings report could cause that result. <<Every small sign of recovery sparked a major rally like in the days where the stocks were really making good money.>> Bookings going from 684 million in Q4 of FY98 to 1.03 billion in Q1 of FY99 hardly qualifies as a small sign. <<Bottom line is most are still earning less than 1-2 years ago and real recovery most likely to take place in the 2nd half of 1999 even if this should have happened now already but it did not.>> Trailing indicator. <<This can not work out if the market starts to melt AMAT will follow sooner or later.>> As the market corrects, AMAT is likely to correct, but is likely to show good relative strength given the trend of bookings. <<Look at MUs chart. From the 80s back to the 60s and it is still way to expensive.>> AMAT is not MU. AMAT may correct, but if you're short, you're playing with fire.