To: Smart Investor who wrote (101111 ) 2/16/1999 9:23:00 PM From: Buster O. Hype Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 176387
Oh yeah ... Dell should be back in the 90's ... and everybody here on this thread is looking at this great buying opportunity tomorrow. On the other hand, I wonder what I'll do with my puts. Let us see. Institutions currently own 50% of Dell. If they were selling last quarter on the 2 cent upside surprise, I wonder what they'll be doing tomorrow. After all $75 is still higher than the $65 it opened up after the Q3 results. Insiders own about 23% of the stock. A lot were selling in the 70's a few weeks back. I wonder if they'll provide cushion for Dell's fall. So it's really up to the die hard Dell heads to come out tomorrow and buy, buy, buy what the funds are going to dump. Of course, you can always rely on some reiterated strong buys tomorrow, to complement the pump and dump split news. CFO just said next quarter's revenues will grow in the mid single digits. To me, this looks like a 30% annual revenue growth, tops. Add to this the looming PC price war, Dell should be lucky enough to be granted a forward PE of 40. This looks more to me like a stock price in the 60's than 90's. Question now is, how do we get to 60 from the current price. I do expect some bounce as traders take advantage of the oversold position and go long. Funds will take advantage of these rallies, as the unloading begins. Dell money is probably going to the better PC growth plays like Microsoft and Intel. Even IBM may not be such a bad parking place. Dell is a great company, a great stock, and WAS A GREAT MOMENTUM PLAY. Now, the momentum guys are packing their stuff, looking for the next great one (No wonder EMC did pretty well today).