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To: John Carpenter who wrote (37619)	2/16/1999 8:45:00 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

18 bucks ? You sure you are not overpaying, John ? <g>Oh, allright. You scared me. I dropped mine down into the mid 21's.<g>If it gets close to my price, I'll probably keep dropping it until I join you at 18.<g> Things can't get any grimmer than this. Or can they ? John

To: John Carpenter who wrote (37619)	2/17/1999 11:01:00 AM
From: Thomas J Pittman	Respond to of 95453

John, I think that is as reasonable a target as I have seen. Maybe that is just because it agrees with mine. I can see consensus estimates for 2.62 in 00. Currently, at least as I understand it, only about 66% of their fleet is committed thru 99. I assume, simplisticly, that they will get no new orders and that rev/earnings from rigs are equivalent. I assume the estimates are high given no new orders and that the real earnings (worst case) in that period will be about .7 x 2.62 or $1.83. A PE of 10 floor of 10 on forward earnings seems pretty safe, so I come out to about 18. Much simplified but essentially, the work I have done says that RIG could trade at 18. A bottom? who knows, but at 18 (darn close to book), I would buy RIG. J