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Technology Stocks : America On-Line (AOL) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert duke who wrote (5148)	2/16/1999 8:34:00 PM
From: Sgt. Stockpile	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

AOL won't buy @Home - IMO Why would AT&T go through these amazing growing pains of bidding for AOL, acquiring TCI & @Home, playing a crucial role in securing Excite, only to give it away. AT&T is undergoing a fundamental change from phone company to cable/internet/phone company, and its all because of Michael Armstrong. Turning the AT&T ship is like moving a beheamoth slug -- slow and deliberate. I'm amazed to see how quickly Armstrong has gotten the job done. AT&T has never been in anything for the quick score -- why would they spend billions in upgrading 2-way cable? These costs are not shouldered by @Home on their balance sheet -- they're made by TCI and AT&T -- so an @Home buyout wouldn't bear these costs. AT&T would essentially build out an entire national infrastructure of 2-way cable only to sell its sole use for that infrastructure to AOL -- for what premium? 2X, 5X, 10X? I say AT&T waits for 5 years when @Home is a full-fledged AOL rival -- then see who wants to buy who -- just like AOL & Netscape. In 1996 AOL offered to buy NSCP, but NSCP's price was too high. Steve case said, "I'll be back in a few years." And NSCP was practically begging to be saved by then. At the very least the two will merge and share profits.

To: robert duke who wrote (5148)	2/16/1999 8:44:00 PM
From: Vendit™	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 41369

So do you see AOL buying athm by the end of the year? It is posible. This sounds like a very logical move to me Robert although someone brought up a good point today about the T-TCI=ATHM connection. I have BTW asked the same question to the right people and expect an answer shortly. Now to change points of reference..... Most of the popular Internet stocks are skirting their 50 DMA's and could be shaken below those levels. Next price support is the 100 DMA. My point is this!....AOL is still jumping off of it's 10 DMA! This is VERY bullish. askresearch.com

To: robert duke who wrote (5148)	2/16/1999 10:26:00 PM
From: RTev	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 41369

About AOL-ATHM: Another point is this: It just isn't a good fit. ATHM isn't worth much without the "last mile". It needs to have the wire into the house and the cable modem. AT&T, when it swallows TCI, will be the country's biggest cable supplier. They already have co-marketing agreements now with the other biggie, Time-Warner (which uses its own ATHM competitor). ATHM has separate agreements with several other major cable companies. ATHM without the cable companies isn't worth what they've invested in it so far. And the other point: Do you really want to see the bottom line of AOL drained for years and years by the massive capital cost of building itself into a utility company? To keep its current subscriber model alive with broadband, it would have to make massive changes in its private network. I'm not even sure that part of it is IP-based even now. What's going to happen to that network if it has to serve two-way connections back and forth from their servers in Virginia to the west coast when each of those connections is live all day long at a minimum speed of 256K compared to the current maximum of 56K? AOL just is not a technology company and it isn't a good fit to try to throw technology-dominant companies like ATHM (or, especially, RNWK) into the mix of what is an impressive media and marketing company.