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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (6458)	2/16/1999 8:41:00 PM
From: RJL	Respond to of 99985

Re: AMAT earnings report. Just an amateur opinion, but... Even though they lost ground from last year, the key is that they beat the street's number. Heck, they could have lost money altogether, but as long as the street was expecting it, the stock goes up. It's like some garbage internet stocks, that lose money every quarter, have zero prospects for profit in the future, yet meet or beat expectations, so their stock goes through the roof. Then you have a quality, well established company, that misses street's expectations, even though they made hundred's of millions per quarter will have their stock trashed :) (Kinda sounds like Dell doesn't it?) Fundamentally, it makes zero sense to me...But in this 'new paradigm' market, it seems to make sense to alot of other people. Scares me every day. Regards, Richard

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (6458)	2/16/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: HighTech	Respond to of 99985

Financial statements show what has happened in the past. They reveal trends but are not relied upon by most investors who follow the analysts. What it more important is by how much/or little did the company beat/miss estimates. This is why in the fourth quarter most companies had decreasing earnings in fact but managed artfully the expectation game and thus we had all these companies beating estimates. Go figure. (Easy for an accountant) When in Rome, do what the Romans do. I do believe that the fact that many companies are reporting decreasing earnings despite their beating estimates, will come home to roost. Just takes some time... HiTech

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (6458)	2/16/1999 8:42:00 PM
From: Amelia Carhartt	Respond to of 99985

Oh, for heaven's sake Monty, haven't you figured out that all that counts is the company beats analyst estimates. It doesn't matter that the estimates are for a negative performance. VBG

To: Monty Lenard who wrote (6458)	2/16/1999 8:58:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi Monty; I guess it's the word Anal-cyst, they spell it wrong, had they cut estimates to 1 cent she would have done even better ------------ The idea that these things really trade on earnings is a joke, It's a MO MO market not an earnings market. Also I can picture the phone calls back and forth and the Big fund managers agreeing on which one they will dump and which one they will hold, depending on who is in which fraternity. <G> If your in that circle and you dump a stock before letting the others know you get dropped out of the loop. Make em really mad and they will gang up and short your holdings, they are all looking up one anothers arse. AMAT is worth about 1/2 of what she was in 98 , but that has little to do with it. Jim