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Microcap & Penny Stocks : GTCI - get in before the news hits -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bobcat who wrote (662)	2/16/1999 10:52:00 PM
From: ztect	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1541

Bobcat... y2k market in China...some numbers... Per stats...2.1 mil computers...now Previously....1.2 mil comps... 1997...750,000...computers... Pre-1997...computers.....approx...1/2 to 3/4 mil total?? Post 1997 computers...y2k compliant pre 1997 computers non y2k compliant.... ================================== HYPOTHETICALS...... y2k percent of market share for product?...40%...35%...15%...5%..???? Competitors sold in China?????? Being generous...figure 25%..... Also figure.....as said in article about MSFT suit and piracy that in China..MOST software is pirated... So say...50% of GTCI product...is actually purchase.... So .25 x .5 x 600,000 = 75,000 copies of y2k software sold???? Cost of product....Margins?.....$5...$10....$15... 75,000 x $10....= $750,000 total ONE times sales???? IF even???? ============================ Anyone else want to GET real numbers to actually bolster or further undermine company claims....... Again these are hypotheticals...that I believe are GENEROUS..... Not much of a market......More realistic and still even GENEROUS scenario below If market share is 10%...Piracy is 60% ie 40% sold...and only 60% of non- compliant computers get "fixed" of 1/2 mill computers and margins $8... .1 x .4 x .6 x 500,000 x $8 = $96,000 Total one time sales Not A real big market.....IE no significants sales or earnings from y2k....whether a real product or not....irrespective of the purported size of y2k problem..... ANY INVESTOR IN THIS COMPANY....I CHALLENGE YOU TO PLUG IN REAL NUMBERS... since such an assessment should be part of your 'dd'... ========================= Now ISP ..... Is Repressive ONE PARTY system in a China...(whose human right's violation were the critical issue as to whether China should or shouldn't receive MFN status and still an issue with UN).....REALLY going to make access to information (as can be obtained via internet) that undermines Central Political System's Authority EASY....DON'T COUNT ON IT... Plus can vast majority of Chinese making less then $1.35 A DAY....afford ISP service and computer...and telephone or cable especially when most Chinese young urban professionals C-yups CAN'T? Only 3% currently on-line?? as reported per article posted per Chris...recently........ Again market isn't there...YET... POLitical system has to fundamentally change to permit access.... Will access change the system...DON'T COUNT ON IT... Will costs come down...most likely....will salaries rise....most likely...SOME DAY...not soon.... BUT THAT IS NOT NOW....thus where are the real earnings NOW and in the near future? No real market...... Now what about the FUTURE??? Will other ISPS enter market....as telephony decentralized? Telecom...and Unicom...... Maybe later AT & T and Worldcom?...COMPETITION.... from "the big boys"...... If market POTENTIAL is really for really...competition? COUNT ON IT... Little guy GTCI getting in early...maybe....PUMPING SHARES...through bogus and exagerated PR....MOST DEFINITELY.... Ever profitable...GTCI...if ever...in the DISTANT FUTURE.....if at all... SO HOW LONG TERM is an investment in this company? VERY And maybe one day....dreams will come true..... Until then BACK TO REALITY.... Sincerely... z