To: Ok2Launch who wrote (5369 ) 2/17/1999 12:20:00 AM From: Steven Rachbach Read Replies (1) | Respond to
I apologize in advance for the rather freeform and disorganized post that follows. But maybe, I'll feel better about things after I have purged some bile and waxed philosophic about the past, present and future of Loral. You see, I do maintain that the purpose of message boards is much more than information sharing. The message board is a place to pontificate, rant, rave, be supportive, be nasty, be anonymous (if desired) and be part of a community of people thinking about the same subject.
What has been bothering most of us in the past few weeks is that some things are beginning to go right while the stock price wallows. I can think nothing more distressing (excuse me for a minute, I have to take my Valium, Prozac and Zantac)....that's better....than having a stock price fall while it should be roaring ahead. Why is this happening? Why doesn't anyone seem to care one way or another? --option activity and trading volume has been light at a time when it should be heavier than normal. For what it's worth, here's what I think:
1. A decaying market in general.
2. Readware used to say, "show me the satellites" while stressing the importance of Loral executing its business plan. He always said demand for these services was there (Globalstar included). I think both statements above are worth discussing. First, Zenit exploded with no robust backup plan. If all goes well, we will have a total of 20 G* birds up in April, which is 7 months behind a successful Zenit-1 mission. Further, as I remember the timetable for Zenit-2 and 3, we will be close to a year behind before the entire constellation is launched. Not only will it cost hundreds of millions more to keep Globalstar going, think of the hundreds of millions "lost" by not having the system making money. Second, it is a bad for Loral/Globalstar that Iridium's demand has been relatively weak. Even though the service is expensive, it is the only system up and it's not doing too well. I feel that delays in executing the launch schedule resulting in delayed revenues and decreased confidence in Loral's abilities has teamed up with Iridium's woes to keep the stock price of both LOR and GSTRF down.
3. Not only may Loral have to "show them the satellites," it may have to "show them the money." Although during most stock market eras, showing the money as the way to a high stock price is the norm, this is not the case now. It is really frustrating to see some of these tech companies with nothing but an idea trading at astronomical prices. As a holder of some options, I am dismayed that the stock price may not rise for many months. My April calls are on life support and my January 2000's and 2001's look bad as well.
4. The wolves have knocked at Loral's door many months ago. Pray that if a takeover occurs, it will be later than sooner. Bernie wants to go out a winner and build this company up. A takeover soon would be an act of capitulation and result in a lower share price than if Loral were to remain independent.
5. Loral needs better PR, more communication with its shareholders, less secrecy, backup plans for every situation, resumption of aggressive acquisitions, birds that work and launches that are successful.
I feel better now......Good night!
Regards,
Steve Rachbach
