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Non-Tech : Invest / LTD -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (7461)	2/16/1999 11:30:00 PM
From: 007	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14427

Since last summer, you have called enough crashes for the next millennium. <last time I said time to crash, top is in was last Summer> Just thought I'd point that out since you seem to have some selective memory loss, but don't take my criticism personally, I've made too many wrong calls to attack anyone personally for their mistakes. Bonds say the market is in trouble, but the dollar and yen say gold is in bigger trouble. Your scenario for a crash still isn't in place, but a significant top appears to be. Looks like a correction to SP 1100 is likely, and that's as far out as I will guess. However, the duration of this bull and the excessive valuations make it very likely that we will have a terrible bear market at some point, and that a crash is also likely. I would venture to guess that a crash is most likely to occur on a break of the SP 970 level. If we assume that we have just seen the top of the bull, then one possible scenario would be to drop down to the 970 level mentioned above, bounce again forming a right shoulder, and then drop and crash (October?). However, this is not a prediction, because frankly I have no idea what is going to happen. The inflation rate will be very important now as everyone will want to see whether Greenspan has the leeway to prop this thing up again. Low commodity prices are paramount, otherwise the bull cannot be revived and a recession will follow. On the other hand, if inflation stays low, and there's a little slowing in the economy, he can just open the spigot again, and you know what that means. He will do whatever he can to prevent your scenario from occurring. Greenspan will become the hero of all central bankers if he can orchestrate a soft landing in the economy and keep the market rolling up in down in some kind of a trading range between 1000 and 1200 until earnings catch up to valuations. No bubble has ended without a pop, and there's always a first time, but I wouldn't plan on it. Maybe the market will fool us all, and just come down a little, consolidate, and take-off again. Good Luck, OO7