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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stefan who wrote (28327)	2/17/1999 12:42:00 AM
From: Paul V.	Respond to of 70976

Stefan, I would call it a set up or the management does not know their business. CEO has called for the $600 mil. in new orders last quarter but actual numbers are 50% higher. Can you trust himon the new projections? Morgan, IMO, has high credibility with WS. They will love him this time even more since they got on the AMAT in the low $20's and have ridden the train up. In '96, they got on the train late. Now, they will continue to hype AMAT and let it to continue running up for a few months. Again, my high standard deviation of AMAT's absolute highs is $101.50. In 1996 the SD high was $104 and AMAT hit $108 before splitting. It will be interesting how accurate the SD during this cycle. My AMAt low for the down cycle is $20.5 after split. The SD low was $21.50, right on. As Gottfried, has stated, it all depends on supply and demand. Jst my opinions. Paul