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Politics : Idea Of The Day -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: IQBAL LATIF who wrote (23534)	2/17/1999 8:56:00 AM
From: Jerry Olson	Respond to of 50167

Morning IKe... thanks my friend, yes it was a wonderful holiday, i'm rested refreshed and well read...i tuned up my knowledge of P&F..what a book!!!! i'll be looking at all the indicators on P&F...here's a view from Tom Dorsey...From the Analyst 02/16/99......... "" Keeping Your Perspective""" Often it is difficult to keep your perspective with so much media stimulus about the markets. CNBC might give a multiplicity of conflicting opinions each day trying to keep their reporting balanced. One person might be bullish and the one following that is bearish. I understand this morning they were talking about the rally as the new dawn. By lunch it had fizzled and the Dow Jones was in negative territory by the afternoon and there were more decliners than advancers, a much more important number to watch. You as an individual investor must cut through the clouds of sound bites and reach for something solid, logical and organized as well as being founded in an irrefutable law such as the law of supply & demand. This will give you peace of mind. Take for instance our discussion of the sell signal given in the Dow Jones 20 Bond Average. We discussed this around two weeks ago, before the market pundits in the media ever realized the bond market was collapsing (see Let's Talk Bon ds in the archived "From The Analyst"). Anyone who called you Friday and advised you that bonds were weak would have been met with a statement like "I'm a couple weeks ahead of you as these indicators gave us signals a two weeks ago." Let's look at reality with some important numbers below. Indicator/Index 1/5/99 2/9/99 NYSE B.P. 56.0% 45.1% OTC B.P. 59.2% 48.3% NYSE Adv-Decl 8,407 more cumulative decliners than advancers OTC Adv-Decl 5,340 more cumulative decliners than advancers NYSE High-Low 71.5% 37.2% This cannot happen with stocks rising OTC High-Low 68.7% 59.9% Dow Jones 9311 9133 S&P 500 1245 1216 Nasdaq Composite 2251 2310 As long as the NYSE Bullish Percent remains in a column of O's we will keep the defensive team on the field and worry about protecting our capital rather than trying to hit a home run. We would rather lose opportunity than lose money. The good news about the current scenario is that the indicators went to Bear Confirmed status at a lower level than last May. That means we are getting closer to the 30% level quicker and in fact some of the short-term indicators are near 30%. Sector rotation should play a very important key as it did in 1994. Stay tuned for changes. While we make every effort to be free of errors in the data on our site, it is derived from data from other sources. We believe these sources to be reliable but we cannot guarantee their accuracy.