To: Bearded One who wrote (22704 ) 2/18/1999 2:06:00 AM From: Gerald R. Lampton Respond to of 24154
They were actually somewhat excited about the idea of Microsoft being split up--- they viewed this as another "Standard Oil," which made more money after being split. How many of the posts you read were legitimate, and how many were by people from Microsoft masquerading as legitimate in order to spin it? ;) I realize that this is not like AT&T or Standard Oil, because most of those companies' assets were physical, and the breakups were geographic. And, those were diminishing returns, rising marginal cost, multifirm industries. Also, one cannot assume that, just because the increase in wealth followed the breakups in those cases, the latter caused the former. Particularly in the case of the phone companies, there was a lot of extraneous technological change going on. On the other hand, it is not impossible that the breakup of Microsoft would lead to greater wealth; in fact it may be likely.I don't know what open source would do in the long run to Microsoft. In the short run, it would startle and horrify many of the smaller investors. I think Chairman Bill could spin it any way he wants, and investors big and small would follow along. I also think that, to the extent open source really is a superior way to do software, investors big and small will eventually catch on. I don't know what the long-term impact would be, either, though I think it may be the only effective way out for them from the W2K problem, and the even bigger problems that await them as their programs grow ever larger. But I can say what I think Microsoft's trial strategy should be: Pray to God Boies gets his breakup order. Microsoft will get a nice stay pending appeal and litigate it up and down the appellate system for years, including to the Supreme Court, where it will be reversed and remanded to have the District Court impose conduct remedies instead. Those will get appealed. That should take about three to five years, by which time technology and events will have overtaken the case, and Microsoft can move to dismiss it as moot. ;)