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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (6498)	2/17/1999 10:06:00 AM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

OT LG, <<I was dropped by Quote.Com QCharts and have been unable to log on to a service for over ten minutes.?? I wonder about your ISP provider---<<g/ng>>

To: HairBall who wrote (6498)	2/17/1999 10:43:00 AM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Hi LG; I've also noticed on real active days the little guy tends to get shut out of the action. Particularly with most all of these web trading type accounts. I've just about give up on even trying to call an order into Waterhouse on active days. I don't know but suspect they take the phones off the hook. Hence position trading ahead of moves is what I'm stuck with, day trading when it works doesn't yield much, and when it would yield it don't work. That's one reason paper trading gives better results than when you get into the real thing. They call it system overload or one thing then the other, but it's to often for me not to suspect a lot of it is deliberate. Jim

To: HairBall who wrote (6498)	2/17/1999 12:29:00 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

*OT** LG, go to NAQ.com I am using them Haim

To: HairBall who wrote (6498)	2/17/1999 11:33:00 PM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

WAVEWATCH Since this is my first wave count foray on MDA, I'll start from the beginning: 1789-1973- Supercycle Wave 1 1973-1980- Supercycle Wave 2 1980-10/97- Supercycle Wave 3 10/97-10/98-Supercycle Wave 4 10/98-today-Supercycle Wave 5 Within this 5th Supercycle wave, It appears as though the 1st cycle completed 2/1/99. Within this first cycle wave, we saw primary wave 1 begin on 10/8/98 and run up into 11/29, primary wave 2 down into 12/14, primary wave 3 up into 1/11, primary 4 down into 1/28, and primary 5 up into 2/1. Since 2/1, we've been in a Cycle wave 2 correction. For comparisons sake, the last cycle wave 2 correction we've seen was the summer of '90 within Supercycle wave 3. So that is the scale of correction we're talking here, although this correction will certainly be much quicker, taking only 1/10th the time that one took. Within this Cycle wave 2 correction, my analysis shows we're still in Wave A (all corrections move in an A down, B up/sideways, C down format). From it's 2/1 late day beginning, the count for this wave A of Cycle corrective wave 2 stacks up as follows: Wave 1 down : 2/2's lows Wave 2 up: 2/4's highs Wave 3 down: 2/10's lows Wave 4 up: 2/16's 11:30 a.m. highs Wave 5 down: We're in process now Notice wave 4 up overlapped with wave 1's ending. This occurs in beginning diagonals, a common occurance with Wave A of a correction. This gives us precise guidelines for how low this wave 5 must and can travel. As i've been preaching all week, this wave 5 down must travel down to 1224 SPH. This is because wave 5 in a beginning diagonal MUST retrace 80% of Wave 4. This wave 5 down CAN travel down to 1186.5, but no further, as wave 5 in an ending diagonal can be no longer than wave 3, and if you add wave 3's length from the starting and ending points shown above, you will find it was roughly 69 S&P pts. in size. Since wave 5 began from the 1255 SPH area, you can see the maximum depth of this move is 1286 and change. Within this Wave 5 of A, I am tracking the completion of a smaller degree 5 wave move. wave 1 of 5 began 2/16 at 11:40am EST, and and ended 2/16 at 2:10pm. wave 2 of 5 began there and completed at the highs today (2/17) at 12:20pm. That big drop you saw today? Oh, that was wave 3 of 5, and it lived up to a wave 3's billing, usually the largest wave within any 5 wave move. It appears as though it washed out at today's 3:50pm lows. This means we're in a wave 4 of 5 bounce now, and could travel no higher than 1236 (which was wave 1 of 5's ending point) before the wave 5 of 5 decline begins. Once this wave 5 of 5 decline ends, Wave A of this Cycle Wave 2 correction is complete, and we begin the Wave B of 2 rally/sideways move. I intend to close Feb & March puts in the a.m. on when i think the 5 of 5 wave is done, and go long. Daily cycle indicators suggest we probably see a rally from there into the 26th of Feb. But we need to hold todays (wednesday's)NYSE lows to validate that cycle forecast. Larry, if you'll tell me how, i'll post a W.O.W. chart on Monty's site with the wave count labeled on the applicable chart. That would make it much more visible and understandable... don't you agreee? Regards, David