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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (101754)	2/17/1999 11:43:00 AM
From: BGR	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

MB, I guess you would also rather forget about the advanced mathematical abilities that you displayed in this thread. Let's take your points one by one: 1. Price war: There was always a price war going on and DELL was always pricing lower than the competitors. They relaxed that a bit in the 4Q and sufferred revenue loss (and not market share loss, which, given your mathematical abilities, I realize that you will find hard to understand). Now things are going to be back to 3Q levels. So what's new? 2. Overpriced Intel MPCs: IOW, INTC will sit back, relax and let AMD take market share away. I guess you are not up-to-date on the latest development in the INTC-AMD front and the aggressive moves that INTC in making to win back market share. Try again. 3. Insider sales: You know that it a non-issue and have said so yourself. So, found little other chinks in the DELL armour, eh!? 4. And where, may I ask, did DELL admit that things look shaky* for the Y2K problem*? 5. Lower margins: DELL CFO targets 50% of product mix to come from high margin items. So, what lower margin numbers do you have and where did you get them from? -BGR.

To: Knighty Tin who wrote (101754)	2/17/1999 12:56:00 PM
From: Chuzzlewit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

You know, I have never in my life seen a person so hell bent in proving his mathematical incompetence as you. You have been provided with data that clearly show the following: 1. The computer business is highly seasonal, with the bulk of Dell's competitors business being done in the fourth quarter. In fact, both CPQ and GTW show a decrease in sales during the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. 2. Dell's sales are also seasonal, but not nearly to the same extent as its competitors. In fact, Dell typically has shown single digit percentage gains in revenues during the first and second quarter, but double digit gains during the third and fourth quarters. Of course, being a practitioner of advanced sophistry you choose to force data into your preconceived mind set. Apparantly, erecting a specious argument is more satisfying to you than honesty. So when it was pointed out to you that Compaq has a sequential Q4 growth of 22% and that GTW has sequential growth of 31.9% compared to Dell's 14.6% you chose to alternately claim: 1. That this is evidence of Dell's loss of market share; or 2. That this is evidence of lack of Dell's seasonality. Gabriel Dubois has conclusively demonstrated the fallacy of you market share argument. I demonstrated the seasonality component. But instead of attempting to understand what was said you choose to twist the argument to suit your own ends. So I repeat the points behind the seasonality issue If you were to geometrically extrapolate average 4Q sequential growth over the entire year you would come up with these figures: CPQ .... 121.5% GTW .... 202.7% DELL ... 72.5% These figure clearly demonstrate that all manufacturers results are seasonal, but Dell is much less seasonal than the others. For Dell to be totally without seasonality it would have had a growth rate of about 11.6% for each quarter. But Dell's growth rate for the fourth quarter is slightly higher (at about 14.6%) and its first quarter is well below this (averaging 6.2% over the previous fourth quarter). ***** Then you go on with this self-congratulatory prattle: " ... nobody on this thread will admit that the lower revenue growth and lower margins he is predicting will lead to lower eps growth. That would be like, reality, dude? <G>" Really? It seems to me that I have been discussing this issue for some time with many people on this thread. Slowing growth is inevitable as a company achieves larger and larger market share. Period. End of story. But not for you. Because you go on to claim some illusory eps disaster. You remind me of one of those conspiracy buffs. Every time you knock down one of the arguments it is somehow taken as proof of the pervasiveness of the conspiracy. CTC