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To: Jay Lowe who wrote (5472)	2/17/1999 1:53:00 PM
From: Jing Qian	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Explosive Cable Modem Growth Forecast February 17, 1999 By Patricia Fusco InternetNews.com Assistant Editor An Internet research firm Wednesday predicted an explosion in the number of residential customers receiving high-speed cable Internet services over the next eight years. Pioneer Consulting reported that 1.5 million subscribers worldwide currently utilize cable modem Internet access, including approximately 790,000 North American users. Pioneer estimates that by the year 2007, more than 45 million Internet connections will be made through cable modems worldwide. North America's share of the market is estimated to be just under 24 percent, or 11 million users. "Cable operators have begun major residential deployments, thereby creating a true retail market for consumer broadband modems," said Scott Clavenna, Senior Analyst at Pioneer. "Through these relationships cable operators have an excellent opportunity to introduce advanced services at a low cost." The residential global cable modem market will expand from its year-end 1998 of 560,000 subscribers to more than 1.5 million in 1999, then enter a period of massive expansion in consumer usage, reaching more than 45 million users by 2007. In contrast, the business market for cable modem services remains quite limited in Pioneer's view because of a poor or non-existent relationship with cable operators. Meanwhile, manufacturers are ramping up their efforts to serve the demand for cable modems. Motorola Inc. announced Monday that they have shipped more than 500,000 of their CyberSURFR cable modems worldwide. In addition, Motorola has shipped cable modem infrastructure to support nearly 4 million cable modem subscribers worldwide. Anticipated growth in the cable modem market will increase current pressure being brought upon the Federal Communication Commission to intervene on behalf of ISPs and open access to cable networks. OpenNET Coalition, the recently formed lobbying group consisting of top national ISPs, will continue to press for FCC regulatory guidelines on open access to cable networks. Charles M. Brewer, founder, chairman and chief executive officer of MindSpring Enterprises Inc., is a founding member company of the openNET Coalition. Brewer said "the core telecommunications offering of the future will be connectivity to the broadband, always on, packet switched Internet. The only economically viable way to deliver this connectivity for many years to come will be through a wire." "If we are going to have a competitive residential market for the core telecommunications service of the future, we must have an effective way for competitive service providers to share the broadband wires that lead to homes" Brewer said. In response the growing cable modem market, Internet Ventures looks to expand their market by petitioning local public utility commissions for leased access rights to cable networks. Don Janke, president of Internet Ventures said "leased access now becomes the only assurance that consumers will receive competitively priced broadband Internet in a timely fashion." Internet Ventures contends that while open access requires additional FCC regulation of the cable industry, leased access is already provided for in Section 612 of the 1996 Telecommunications Act.

To: Jay Lowe who wrote (5472)	2/17/1999 2:18:00 PM
From: Frank A. Coluccio	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

OT - Hypothetics Jay, The kind of meddling that comes to mind is similar to what the FCC has proposed to the RBOCs (T/TCI, to draw the parallel) regarding their DSL (cablemodem) offerings. The fed has proposed that the ILECs create separate operating units from which to deploy their own DSLs (ATHM, in this case). The other part says that the ILECs would unbundle their central offices and copper loop facilities (DOCSIS, wireline and head-end router elements) from the standpoint of a regulated entity (MSO). The latter unbundled elements could then be made available to their competitors (ISPs) for their users' consumption. This is nothing new. There's a similar initiative that speaks to a different, yet related "opening up" in the way of OVS, or open video services, for a program-grade TV delivery standpoint. Forced into such a position, T would probably opt for something more lucrative an outcome, more in line with shareholders' interests. Like another round of spinoffs, something at which they've become successful in recent years. I don't agree with the premises contained in the first paragraph above, but it, or something similar, seems to be a likely eventual outcome here. Or the alternative response by T that I've mentioned, to counter, or more likely, to preempt, it. Disintegration is the unavoidable price or profit one pays or receives, depending on how they play it out, for being very successful, despite the high costs and the associated high risks they take, in the deployment of any form of common carriage. And lest there be any misgivings, the MSOs are heading for just that: Common Carriage. Getting too successful cannot occur without entering into the realm of dominance, hence, monopoly status once again, when all weather vanes are pointing the other way. And this isn't all bad for shareholders. Just ask those who now own LU and the other spinoffs of the original T. Comments welcome. Regards, Frank Coluccio

To: Jay Lowe who wrote (5472)	2/17/1999 2:26:00 PM
From: Jay Lowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

Seattle and county cave to T/TCI High-speed Internet deals reached with AT&T to avoid delays by Kery Murakami and J. Martin McOmber Seattle Times staff reporters For both the Seattle City Council and the Metropolitan King County Council, months of wrangling over TV cable service and high-speed access to the Internet boiled down to this: how to prevent a telecommunications giant from controlling the next valuable information technology, without denying that technology to thousands of local customers. In the end, the two governments yesterday struck similar deals with AT&T over Internet access in the city and in unincorporated parts of the county. Both city and county officials said the agreements will allow customers to shop around for high-speed Internet access. AT&T agreed to allow its competitors faster and trouble-free connections to its cable lines, which are 50 to 100 times faster than traditional phone lines. Full text at seattletimes.com - AT&T guarantees access to other ISPs - TCI gets to DELAY THE INSTALL FOR ANOTHER YEAR - Meanwhile, TCI has to pay subs $5/mo off their bill - Plus (whoopie!) one free pay-per-view each month - Plus a coupon Sluts.