<<That is a conservative projection on revenues, don't you think? As
we should do about 290m this year, and over 400m is possible in 2000 with some success in ramp of new products. I'm looking forward to your analysis of the cc. TIA>>
I agree it seems conservative. But I think the last thing they want is to over estimate anything.
I will say that sales are a strong point. Their new products look to be extreme leading edge (MetroFusion, ARANEA). They will also be higher in sticker price than anything MRVC sells today. With ANY significant success, revs should exceed your estimates.
Those products hit future demand dead cener. TELCOs are prjected to spend $150 Billion on the Internet et al over the next decade.
Also see this article from the current PC world:
February 17, 1999
Fast Forward: Future
Internet
by Angela Navarrete
The Internet's about to crash. Sure, you've heard that
dire prediction before, and it didn't come true. But over
the next three years, the Net could face a critical
shortage of bandwidth. It all begins with millions of new
users flocking to the Net. According to Forrester
Research, the number of online accounts in the United
States alone will grow from the current 28.7 million to
77.6 million in 2002. A significant number of those
accounts--Forrester says 16 million--will access the
Net over cable or DSL connections that are potentially
up to 50 times faster than today's 56-kbps modems. At
the same time, many people will use the Internet for
videoconferencing, telephony, telecommuting, and
online gaming--applications that not only are ravenous
for raw bandwidth but demand a level of reliability the
present Internet can't provide.
All of which means that three years from now the Net
will have to carry way more data than it does today,
and do so more reliably. This looming bandwidth crisis
has the folks who run the Internet in a tizzy, from local
mom-and-pop ISPs to established international telecom
giants like Sprint. Players at every level of the Net are
frantically scrambling to make the network, from the
home desktop to the local ISP to the backbones that
tie it all together, faster and more versatile. That costs
money, and many of today's ISPs could be priced out
of the game. Which is why three years from now, your
Internet connection could be faster, your monthly
Internet bills higher, and your choice of service
providers more limited.
The Last Mile
So what do you need all the bandwidth for? Ask ISPs,
telephone companies, and other Internet players, and
they'll describe a typical night at home, circa 2002:
Pop's in the living room, videoconferencing via laptop
with his broker; while the two of them discuss the
latest Internet IPO, he's simultaneously browsing the
company's 3D-graphics-laden Web page. Mom's
telecommuting in the den, using her company's virtual
private network and virtual Centrex. Upstairs, junior's
playing Quake XXII online, complete with real-time
audio heckling. And everyone else on their block is
doing the same thing at the same time.
You can't very well do any of that today, largely
because of the bottleneck between you and your
ISP--the so-called last mile. While business users have
a variety of broadband options, including T1 lines and
other dedicated, high-speed connections, home users
aren't so lucky: They're limited by the modem sitting on
their desk. Not many home users have switched to
ISDN (300,000 in the United States, according to
Forrester), and at 56 kbps, today's modems are going
about as fast as today's phone lines will let them.
Which is why everyone's so excited about cable and
DSL, the two technologies vying to replace traditional
modem connections for home users (see "Bandwidth
on Demand"). Current cable connections can manage
speeds up to 3 mbps, and that's likely to still be the
case three years from now. Most DSL implementations
run between 256 kbps and 1.5 mbps--and analysts say
that's what most users will get for the next three years
as well.
The Next Stretch
But other options are on the way. In mid-1999, for
example, Sprint will start rolling out its Integrated
On-demand Network, or ION, which will deliver voice,
video, and data at speeds up to 620 mbps. By the end
of the year, businesses and consumers alike should be
able to purchase an ION Integrated Service Hub at a
retail store for $200 to $300, about the cost of a DSL or
cable modem today. The box will be wired into your
phone jack and attached to an ethernet card in your
PC. Then, for prices starting around $100 a month,
you'll have a persistent high-speed Internet connection,
videoconferencing, local calling with Caller ID, virtually
unlimited long-distance calling, and service and support
from Sprint. That's not to say you'll always get all the
bandwidth you pay for: Sprint admits that whenever you
leave the ION network--which means anytime you ask
for data from a server that's not on Sprint's
network--you'll slow down.
Two other companies, Virginia-based Teligent and New
York-based Winstar, plan to traverse the last mile
using wireless radio frequencies instead of congested
copper lines. Voice or data would be transmitted from a
dish on your roof the size of a dinner plate to a central
office, which would then transmit the information to
your ISP. Designed primarily for urban areas, this
arrangement could be a lot cheaper than digging up the
streets to lay fiber, and it would let businesses take full
advantage of Net connection speeds of up to 622
mbps.
Winstar recently announced plans to expand from 30 to
60 U.S. markets between now and the end of 2000.
Teligent, which will target small and midsize
businesses in urban and suburban areas, entered its
first 15 markets in 1998, including Chicago, Denver,
Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C. The company
expects to add 25 more before the end of this year.
Inside This Article
Fast Forward: Future
Internet
The Future of ISPs
Voice and Video: The
New Bottlenecks
The Backbone's
Connected to ...
(Chart)
How Fast Is Your
Pipe? (Chart)
Bandwidth Bestiary
Related Stories
Got Web? (1/99)
Pump Up Your Browser
(7/98)
Why Can't You Get
Faster Web Access?
(2/98)
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