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Biotech / Medical : VVUS: VIVUS INC. (NASDAQ) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: VLAD who wrote (18853)	2/17/1999 6:06:00 PM
From: Colby	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23519

Here is a nice piece of PR trying to capitalize on Viagra's risk profile, too bad it's not VVUS doing it. Move Over Viagra! New Safe Alternative Leading The Way! LOS ANGELES--(BW HealthWire)--Feb. 17, 1999--Erogen recently released its Erogenex male formula and Erogenex female formulas (also known by their formula name, Ex22). Erogen claims the capsules not only enhance sexual performance, but can also increase libido. Although the pills are not yet being formally marketed, sales are through the roof and Erogenex has already caught the eyes of many distributors overseas. A company spokesperson says that while nothing has yet been finalized, negotiations to export are underway with large companies in Europe as well as Asia. Erogen does have plans to actively begin marketing Erogenex over the next two months. The overwhelming response so far to the Erogenex products with no formal marketing endeavors by the company, seems to be a good sign of future revenues. Company spokesperson Sandra Lock says, "It is not hard to see why a product such as Erogenex would make such a huge impact. The fact is that Erogenex is a safe product based on twenty years of research and clinical testing." She goes on to say, "People are clamoring to try this product in hopes that it will work for them. There are no negative side effects associated with Erogenex, and it is a fraction of the cost of its 'prescription-only counterparts.'" She points out that the product has about a 77% success rate in men and the success rate for women is slightly less; but in most cases all experience some positive benefits. The product does come with a thirty day money back guarantee, so it seems one would have little or nothing to lose in trying Erogenex. Erogen has tapped in to a market that seemed destined to be cornered by the likes of Pfizer (PFE) and Zonagen (Nasdaq:ZONA). But Icos Corp (Nasdaq:ICOS), Tap Holdings, and Bio Technology General (Nasdaq:BTGC) are all working on rival treatments and Pentech Pharmaceuticals of Wheeling III has a drug in late-stage testing. Indianapolis-based Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) and New York-based Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (NYSE:BMY) are also looking to make drugs from scratch through partnerships or from drugs now slated for other uses. Amongst all of the rising competition are rising health concerns. Red flags have been raised due to the over one hundred fatalities linked to the use of Viagra. These health concerns associated with Viagra, and side effects linked to the other prescription-only formulas, have actually aided Erogen in tapping in to an enormous segment of the market. The non-prescription Erogenex seems to be a smart alternative for those seeking help with sexual performance but who are concerned with prescription formulas and their side effects.

To: VLAD who wrote (18853)	2/17/1999 8:49:00 PM
From: Andreas Samson	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23519

Vlad, by rescue fantasy, I refer to any scenario which RELIES on a force OUTSIDE VVUS to solve it's problems; i.e., a larger pharma company stepping in to sell the product they have failed to sell domestically in the face of Viagra. Or, b) an FDA action, such as black boxing, which would inhibit sales of Viagra. In the meantime, there are realities. Such as the following statement from LW: '...4Q international revenue down $8.3M, due to delay in int'l approvals and launches...our partners are CURRENTLY HOLDING inventories for these launches, and we DO NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL SHIPMENTS TO THE PARTNERS UNTIL SECOND HALF OF 1999.' In other words, the channel is filled. Furthermore, LW stated: 'maintaining profit Q1 and Q2, even WITH milestone payments, will be a challenge'. In other words, he is anticipating, at minimum, $8M LESS in product revenue over the next two quarters, than was achieved in 4Q98, which looks like this: 3Q98: 18M 4Q98: 11.1M 1Q99: 7M (est) That's called NEGATIVE SEQUENTIAL REVENUE GROWTH. And it's gonna happen this quarter, possibly next, REGARDLESS of EU approval. Without rev. growth, there is no gasoline. Without gasoline, without a 'story' to drive the stock, such as the signing of a domestic partner (that's IF and WHEN), there really is no reason to make an investment in VVUS. In the meantime, the price will drift to lower lows, as we have witnessed since the CC.