To: Wigglesworth who wrote (28152 ) 2/17/1999 10:14:00 PM From: Mang Cheng Respond to of 45548
"Consumers Slow To Bet On 56K V.90 -- Although Upgrade Sales Doubled in '98, Users' Old Habits Appear Hard to Break" February 17, 1999 COMPUTER RETAIL WEEK via NewsEdge Corporation : A year ago this month, the International Telecommunications Union adopted a draft standard for 56K modems, ending a long-running specifications war and clearing the way for mass adoption of V.90, the fastest analog technology on the market. Yet, despite widespread availability and relatively low prices-about $90 to $130-of standard 56K devices, consumers are upgrading their modems at a far slower pace than technology experts expected. Media Metrix, New York, recently reported that many consumers are still using the 14.4K-bps, 28.8K-bps or 33.6K-bps modem included with their PCs instead of upgrading to 56K bps. Bruce Ryon, chief technology analyst for Media Metrix, said new PC purchases are end-users' primary path to 56K connectivity, not modem upgrades. "We are seeing people getting 56K modems through new PC systems this year, " Ryon said. In its October report on U.S. consumer PC ownership and usage, Media Metrix found that only 17 percent of the 37 million PCs in the United States had a 56K modem-and half of those were obtained via a new system purchase. "This means only about 8 percent of consumers bothered to upgrade their existing [modem]," Ryon said. He could not say whether this is because consumers are waiting for faster alternative technologies-such as ADSL, ISDN and cable-to become widely available and more affordable, or simply because they lack interest in modem upgrades. The installed base of 56K modems reported in October did, however, double from the figure logged in March, when Media Metrix found only 8 percent of PCs were so equipped. Colleen Carey, product line marketing manager for modem vendor 3Com, said she does not think alternative technologies affected 56K modem sales last year. She said the industry saw a 7 percent jump in sales in 1998, compared with 1997. 3Com's aftermarket analog modem sales are strong, she said, and the company projects 56K modems will continue to be the leading consumer method of connecting to the Internet until about 2002, when cable and ADSL modems are likely to take over, she said. "The other technologies are not mainstream enough yet to effect them [56K modems], particularly because modem prices are so low," she said. Carey said sales associates can use the existence of digital and other connectivity products to sell analog devices. The message to customers could be that other types will offer a great deal of functionality in the future, but 56K is here now, and it's affordable. Peter Geier, marketing manager for Eicon Technology, a maker of ISDN products, agreed that the retail customer isn't yet ready to embrace alternative technologies. For example, the average customer does not understand ISDN technology and cannot install it, which leads to high product return rates. A more technologically savvy consumer can handle ISDN, but these users prefer to shop online or through catalogs, he said. "For ISDN products, there is a very high return rate for products bought off the shelf. This is less so for those bought online and through catalogs, so we decided off-the-shelf is not worth it," Geier said. Eicon sells its products via catalog and online sales. Copyright c 1999 CMP Media Inc. By Doug Olenick <<COMPUTER RETAIL WEEK -- 02-15-99, p. PG35>>