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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave B who wrote (15725)	2/17/1999 11:51:00 PM
From: Don Green	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

>Supply and demand That is something I totally agree on.. But even more important is overall market conditions.. That is what I trade on, not hype or vodoo, etc... P/E is STILL very important to those who hold the keys to the kingdom..Liquidity is even more important these days..and Rambus fails in both areas.... That is the main reason so many top investment houses have avoided Rambus in my opinion. They CAN see the long-term potential for the stock, but they also see the timeline...and at the present time they can not justify the P/E.. Time is on their side regards Don

To: Dave B who wrote (15725)	2/17/1999 11:58:00 PM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

O.K. everyone, it's prediction time: I read in a report that RMBS is estimated to capture 8% of the $40 billion DRAM market by YE 1999. That's $3.2 billion. Multiply that by 1.5% royalty fee and you get $48 million. Now RMBS has revenues (which are not DRAM related) of $39 million for the last 12 months. So assuming that they retain that level of non-DRAM revenues, add in the extra $48 million for DRAM related royalties, and you get $87 million in revenues. That's more than twice last year's figures. Multiplying that by a very conservative 10% net margin will get you $8.7 million to the bottom line. Divide that by 23 million o/s shares and you get $.38 EPS for YE 1999. Multiply that by 250 PE and you get $95 per share. That would give you a 40% return from now to 12/99. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. I have an equal amount of shares at $45, $56, & $75. Tomorrow I add more at circa $65. I have a hole in that range that needs to be filled. ;>